What is a prediction market? Recently, I saw everyone on Polymarket betting on the Fed Chair candidate, and Hasset's probability has risen to 61%!🤔

To be honest, I was confused at first, but I later realized that this is a place to predict future events with real money. It feels much more interesting than just reading news and analysis because market participants vote with their money, and probabilities keep adjusting, which is like the collective wisdom of many traders at work.

Trump might appoint a new chair in the first week of January. As soon as this news came out, the market reacted very quickly. Seeing Hasset's probability climb from a low point to 61%, while Wosh and Waller's probabilities were suppressed, I suddenly started to understand what "liquidity" and "information pricing" mean in financial markets.😅

Honestly, though, this kind of prediction market can be a bit overwhelming for beginners, so you need to control yourself and not bet recklessly. Can any experts explain whether the predictions on Polymarket are accurate? Are they more reliable than traditional polls?