Market betting on Opinion valuation exceeding 1 billion, probability rises to 65%. What's behind the surge in new users?

According to the latest data from Polymarket, market expectations for Opinion’s valuation remain optimistic. The probability of the FDV exceeding $1 billion on the day after Opinion’s launch has risen to 65%, with the probability of exceeding $500 million reaching 91%. The current trading volume in this prediction market has surpassed $400,000, reflecting strong market interest in this new project.

The Three Layers of Market Expectations

Data on Polymarket clearly outlines the market’s valuation expectations for Opinion:

This probability distribution reveals an interesting phenomenon: the market is quite confident that Opinion will break the $1 billion valuation in the short term, but remains cautious about a more aggressive $2 billion target. A 65% probability indicates that market participants believe a $1 billion valuation is more likely, which is uncommon for new projects.

User Growth Data Supports Expectations

The market expectations for Opinion are backed by solid user data. According to relevant reports, Opinion performed impressively during the Double Holiday period:

• Over 48,000 new user addresses, accounting for more than 30% of the platform’s total users
• These new users conducted over 2.1 million transactions
• New user transactions account for 38.3% of total transactions

This indicates that Opinion not only attracted a large number of new users but also that these users are highly active. Contributing nearly 40% of transaction volume, the quality and activity level of these new users are top-tier for a new project.

Overall Market Heat in the Prediction Sector

Warming Competition Landscape

According to relevant information, active prediction market projects include Opinion, Polymarket, and several other platforms. Some users have compiled prediction market projects expected to have a TGE (Token Generation Event) by 2026, with Opinion standing out due to rapid user growth and active trading. This suggests that the prediction market sector is heating up, with various projects competing for users.

TGE Expectations as a Key Driver

Reports mention that Opinion is expected to conduct its TGE before the Spring Festival, which serves as an important psychological support for market betting. Users participating in platform interactions are also looking forward to subsequent airdrops and token incentives. This anticipation will likely further boost platform activity and valuation expectations.

The Logic Behind Market Expectations

Rapid User Base Accumulation

The influx of 48,000 new users in a short period indicates that Opinion’s marketing or product truly hits market demand. Achieving such user growth in the relatively niche prediction market sector in a short time is not easy.

Validation of Trading Activity

Over 2.1 million new user transactions are not just numbers—they validate product stickiness. New users are not just browsing and leaving; they are actively trading. This level of activity fuels optimistic valuation expectations.

Imagination Space of Prediction Markets

As a relatively emerging sector, prediction markets are experiencing growth. Opinion, as an active participant, naturally benefits from sector growth. Valuations for such projects often reference the overall growth potential of the industry.

Summary

The market’s optimistic expectation for Opinion’s valuation (65% probability of exceeding $1 billion) is not unfounded. The influx of 48,000 new users, the active trading volume of 2.1 million transactions, and the anticipation of TGE before the Spring Festival all form the basis of this outlook. The over $400,000 trading volume on Polymarket indicates that institutions and experienced players are also involved in this valuation prediction.

However, it is important to note that these are market expectations, not certainties. The final valuation will depend on the actual pricing and market performance at TGE. In the short term, whether Opinion can maintain such user activity and how liquidity performs after TGE will be key factors in determining if it can meet market expectations.