#美联储利率政策 These past couple of days, I've been seeing a surge in discussions about the potential Fed chair candidate, with opinions on Kevin Waugh increasing significantly. Many people become worried about a crypto market crash upon seeing his "hawkish" label, but I think there's some rational analysis worth considering.

Waugh is indeed a principled person—having experienced the 2008 financial crisis firsthand and witnessing the terrifying moment when liquidity shifted from "present" to "absent." This naturally makes him cautious about the Fed's unlimited bailout measures. His advocated approach of "aggressive balance sheet reduction + moderate rate cuts" sounds tough, but the core logic is actually about restoring the dollar's credibility by controlling the money supply, rather than blindly flooding the market with liquidity.

For conservative investors like us, this kind of policy environment might not be a bad thing. If he truly achieves "non-inflationary growth," the real yields on government bonds and cash will become attractive again, essentially eliminating distortions. In the short term, risk assets will indeed face valuation recalibrations, but in the long run, assets built on real utility and compliance are more resilient.

Honestly, though, the final decision isn't in any one person's hands. History shows that political pressure will ultimately influence the direction of monetary policy. Instead of guessing how policies might sway, it's better to start adjusting your portfolio now—ensure your risk exposure is within manageable limits, maintain sufficient cash reserves, and prepare psychologically for potential liquidity tightening.

No matter who takes the helm at the Fed, managing your own risks remains the top priority.