#美联储利率政策 The "hawkish" signal from the new FOMC voting member of the Federal Reserve is worth paying attention to. Harker advocates for freezing interest rates until spring, with the core logic that inflation risks have not yet been fully resolved—this marks a policy turning point from the continuous rate cuts over the past three months.

From an on-chain perspective, such changes in policy expectations are usually reflected in derivatives on commodity chains and stablecoin flows. If the market truly digests the expectation of "interest rates remaining high for a long time," then the recent inflow and outflow patterns of whale addresses should show clear risk-averse characteristics—namely, more flows into stablecoins or low-volatility assets.

Key points to watch: First, the Federal Reserve's policy may indeed remain neutral to tight before spring; second, when will inflation data and tariff impacts truly manifest; third, whether the current market pricing fully reflects this expectation. If subsequent CPI data continues to be high, we may see changes in positions in commodities and related contracts—often a barometer of genuine market sentiment.