#美联储利率政策 Seeing this report from UBS, what flashes through my mind is the shadow of the 2017 bull market. Back then, the narrative was similar—strong corporate profits, ample liquidity, optimistic policy expectations, and institutions one after another shouting "continue to be bullish." The S&P 500 did eventually hit new highs, but you know what happened next.

I'm not saying UBS's analysis is flawed; quite the opposite, they see clearly: tech sector profits remain solid, the Federal Reserve may continue to cut rates, and clarity on tariffs can reduce volatility. These logics indeed supported the market in 2025. The problem is, every cycle of prosperity, when told the third or fourth time, often signals an impending turning point.

I've experienced too many such scenarios—from the 2013 "bull market start," to the 2017 "Beautiful 50," and then the 2021 "Metaverse frenzy." Each time, institutions can find enough fundamental reasons to maintain optimism, and each time, the market ultimately shatters expectations with an unexpected variable. Will tariffs truly become "clearer"? Will the Federal Reserve keep cutting rates all the way? Can tech earnings growth sustain above 10%?

My advice is not to oppose allocation but to: stay invested, but don't be fully long. History has shown me that the best defense is to leave enough bullets at the peak. The 7700 point target isn't impossible, but reaching it and safely exiting are two different things.