Hayes full position in 2026, the geopolitical factors driving up BTC's logical chain

Arthur Hayes’ latest long-form article reveals a complete chain from geopolitical factors to the rise of crypto assets: U.S. control over Venezuela’s oil resources → lowering oil prices → curbing inflation → creating room for loose policies → benefiting risk assets. He has validated his views through action, with Maelstrom fund nearly fully invested into 2026 and a focused allocation in privacy assets. This is not only an investment signal but also a deep interpretation of the macro landscape.

Hayes’ Macro Logic

How Geopolitics Pushes Up BTC

Hayes’ core argument in “Suavemente” is divided into three parts:

First: Geopolitics Control Energy The U.S. “detaining” Maduro and effectively controlling Venezuela’s oil resources is fundamentally an energy strategy. Lowering oil prices directly suppresses inflation, providing the U.S. government with ongoing space for loose monetary and fiscal expansion.

Second: Loose Policies Boost Nominal GDP Under the dual effects of “money printing stimulation + controlled energy prices,” nominal GDP will rise. This increase is not actual economic growth but a result of monetary overissuance.

Third: Risk Assets Benefit Rising nominal GDP will lift all risk assets, especially inflation-hedging assets like Bitcoin. Although inflation is suppressed in nominal figures, the actual money supply is increasing, ultimately flowing into risk assets.

The key to this logic: Geopolitical control of energy → lowering inflationary nominal figures → creating room for easing → monetary overissuance → asset prices rise.

Why 2026

Hayes emphasizes this is to maintain voter support for the Trump administration during the midterm elections. The U.S. midterms are scheduled for November 2026, meaning the entire year 2026 is a window for policy easing. This also explains why he says “currently should go long on BTC and quality crypto assets”—the time window is right in front of us.

Action Validates the View

Maelstrom’s Three Signals

Full Position Entry Hayes explicitly states that Maelstrom is nearly fully invested into 2026. This is not just talk. For a seasoned trader like Hayes, full position means he has already voted with his capital supporting his judgment.

Strategic Investment in River Relevant info shows Maelstrom made a strategic investment in the chain-abstracted stablecoin project River. This investment isn’t for short-term gains but to position in a promising tech track. Subsequently, River tokens surged 600%-830% in a week, with total network trading volume reaching $2.6 billion. This reflects market recognition of Hayes’ judgment.

Preparing USDC Reserves Latest info indicates Arthur Hayes transferred $4.43 million USDC into exchanges. The implication: ready cash, waiting for opportunities. Experienced traders understand that large capital loading signals impending market activity.

New Narrative for Privacy Assets

Hayes is particularly optimistic about the privacy narrative sector, explicitly mentioning ZEC (Zcash) as the next main theme. This judgment may be based on: during easing cycles, privacy needs increase; meanwhile, privacy assets as a niche can more easily form a collective momentum.

Market’s Actual Response

Note that River’s sharp surge, while reflecting Hayes’ market insight, also entails risks. Such projects often react quickly after big capital backing, but whether they sustain depends on fundamentals.

Variables to Watch

Hayes’ chain of logic relies on several key assumptions:

Will energy prices truly be suppressed? Geopolitical situations change rapidly; Venezuela’s long-term stability is uncertain.

Will easing policies persist? The policy orientation of the Trump administration will directly influence expectations. Unexpected tightening signals could break the chain.

Can the privacy narrative hold? Privacy coins like ZEC face regulatory pressures; whether they become “the next main theme” depends on policy environment.

Summary

Hayes’ chain of logic—geopolitics → energy → inflation → easing → asset rise—embodies a combination of macro analysis and micro actions. He not only articulates his views in writings but also validates his judgment through full positions, strategic investments, and cash inflows. His consistency in words and actions itself is a signal.

The current gradual rise of BTC and the explosive growth of RIVER both confirm the market recognition of this logic. However, investors should understand that Hayes’ judgment is based on specific macro assumptions; if these change, expectations must be adjusted. During the policy easing window in 2026, paying attention to geopolitics, energy prices, and policy movements is more important than short-term fluctuations.