Is XRP about to break through? The $2.41 key level determines a 13% upside potential

XRP is experiencing its strongest rebound in months, with a total increase of 33% since the low on December 31, 2025, and an 11% surge just in the past 24 hours. Market focus has shifted to a key question: can XRP break through the $2.41 resistance level? According to the latest analysis, a successful breakthrough could open up a 13% upside potential, but this requires the bulls to overcome significant selling pressure.

The rebound foundation is solid, and technical signals are beginning to turn

XRP’s current rally started around $1.77, forming a triple bottom. This level has been tested multiple times and has become the current rebound’s support. From a technical momentum perspective, signs of improvement are clear— the 20-day EMA is rising and approaching the 50-day EMA. If a bullish crossover occurs, it typically indicates a shift from a rebound to a sustained upward trend.

Volume and on-chain funds are speaking

In terms of volume, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has broken through the previous downtrend line, indicating that funds are re-entering the XRP market. On-chain data more directly reflects the attitude of institutions and long-term holders—since December 30, the daily net accumulation by long-term holders has surged from about 9 million XRP to over 47 million XRP, showing confidence in XRP remains among these investors.

However, it’s important to note that OBV has not yet formed a clear new high, suggesting that while buying is increasing, it has not yet entered an acceleration phase.

$2.41: Resistance or opportunity

Almost all technical and on-chain signals currently point to the $2.41 level. How strong is the resistance here? Based on cost basis distribution, approximately 1.56 billion XRP are concentrated in the $2.39–$2.41 range, meaning many holders may choose to sell to break even at this level, creating a strong resistance. The longer upper shadow on the candlestick at this level also reflects significant selling pressure.

Two scenarios: breakthrough or failure

If XRP can hold above the $2.41 level on the daily chart and break through, selling pressure above will significantly ease. According to technical analysis, the next target could be around $2.69, offering about 13% upside from the current price. This would strongly reinforce bullish market sentiment toward XRP.

Conversely, if the breakout fails, XRP may retest the short-term support at $2.26, with a deeper support level at $1.90. But as long as the price does not fall below $1.77, the overall upward structure remains intact.

Risks should not be ignored

Although technical signals and on-chain funds point to an upward trend, there is also a risk of profit-taking. The unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) among long-term holders has risen into an area historically prone to profit-taking, indicating short-term risks are accumulating. Meanwhile, the market is at a critical validation stage—whether the rally can continue depends on whether bulls can turn the $2.41 resistance into a new support.

Summary

XRP’s current rebound is built on a solid technical foundation, with a 33% increase and net accumulation by long-term holders demonstrating market confidence. However, the key $2.41 resistance level will determine the subsequent trend—successfully breaking through could mean a 13% upside, while failure would require a retest of support levels. Based on current technical signals and capital flow, a breakout is possible, but investors should closely monitor this level and remain cautious of short-term profit-taking risks.