When I saw Kalshi's data report, I was deep in thought. The prediction market's average error in inflation forecasts is 40% lower than Wall Street's—what does this number imply?

Having experienced these years of market fluctuations, I’ve learned one thing: genuine market participants are often more honest than so-called experts. Wall Street analysts face reputation pressure, institutional interests, and influence over their statements, which often burden their forecasts. Prediction markets are different; participants vote with real money, and if they’re wrong, they lose money. This economic incentive creates a "group wisdom" that is indeed more perceptive than pure academic predictions.

But I need to be cautious of another issue: don’t treat prediction markets as an ATM. Historically, projects that claim to be "market prediction" have all ended up as tools for harvesting profits from naive investors. Kalshi’s accuracy hinges on its authentic trading mechanism and transparent incentive structure—things that not every prediction market platform can achieve.

During times of high uncertainty, listening more to the market’s voice can be valuable. But the prerequisite is to distinguish which predictions are truly driven by incentives and which are just Ponzi schemes disguised as forecasts. Don’t be fooled by the attractive appearance of the data; ask yourself whether the underlying mechanism can stand the test of time.