Bubblemaps rejects claims linking Maduro Polymarket bet insider to WLFI cofounder

Source: Cryptonews Original Title: Bubblemaps rejects claims linking Maduro Polymarket bet insider to WLFI cofounder Original Link:

Overview

Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps has dismissed viral claims linking a Polymarket trader involved in the Nicolás Maduro prediction market to a cofounder of World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a Trump-linked crypto project. The firm argues that the on-chain logic behind these allegations does not withstand scrutiny.

The Controversy

The speculation centers on a high-profile Polymarket trade in a prediction market asking whether Venezuela’s president would be removed from power by a set deadline. In the hours before reports of Maduro’s capture surfaced, several newly created accounts placed aggressive “Yes” bets, turning roughly $60,000 into more than $630,000.

One wallet attracted particular attention after converting about $32,000 into nearly $400,000. On-chain traces showed the account was funded via Coinbase deposits on Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH), sparking speculation that the trader possessed non-public information.

An on-chain analyst subsequently claimed the funding wallet could be linked to WLFI through a roughly 250 SOL Coinbase deposit that appeared similar to another transfer allegedly tied to WLFI-associated wallets and ENS/SNS domains referencing the name “Steven Charles.”

Bubblemaps’ Rebuttal

Bubblemaps rejected this conclusion outright, cautioning that timing-based wallet matching is being stretched beyond its analytical limits.

According to the firm, a one-day gap between deposits into and out of an exchange carries little significance, especially when analyzing a single asset. When other assets such as USDC and ETH are included, Bubblemaps identified approximately 20 wallets matching the same pattern using identical time windows and value ranges.

The firm also highlighted that exchange deposits can originate from bank transfers, multiple smaller transactions, or older balances consolidated long after initial funding—factors ignored in the viral claims.

“Calling this a 99% match is clickbait,” Bubblemaps stated, emphasizing that shared exchange paths and similar naming conventions do not establish wallet ownership or coordination.

The Broader Issue

While the timing of the Polymarket trades remains unusual, Bubblemaps stressed that poor analytical discipline can lead to almost any conclusion if the framing is sufficiently aggressive.

The firm urged the crypto community to distinguish between credible on-chain evidence and narratives driven by sensationalism, particularly when politically sensitive events and prominent projects are involved.

As of now, neither Polymarket nor WLFI has announced any internal findings, and no formal investigation has been disclosed.