Prediction markets? Sounds impressive, but I only recently understood what they really are🤔 I just saw a research report from Kalshi, saying that their prediction accuracy is actually higher than that of Wall Street economists, with an average error in inflation forecasts being 40% lower. That's incredible! And during times of economic volatility, their advantage can soar up to 67%. It feels like a "collective intelligence" of a group of traders defeating professional analysts.

This suddenly made me wonder, isn't a prediction market just a way to gather everyone's judgments and reflect true expectations through trading prices? It’s a bit like a public vote but with real money betting? This approach is indeed more convincing than a single expert’s subjective judgment. But I’m still a bit confused—what’s the difference between prediction markets and regular trading? Can any experts help me understand? It seems like this could be a new window into understanding macroeconomics👀