#美联储降息 Seeing UBS forecast the US stock market to continue improving by 2026, I recall a truth that I only understood after being cut many times: the optimism from big institutions is never a buy signal, but rather a risk warning.

Don’t misunderstand, I’m not saying UBS is wrong. Strong corporate earnings, Federal Reserve rate cuts, clear policies—these fundamental factors are indeed valid. It’s not impossible for the S&P 500 to surge to 7700 points. The problem is, when these positive signals are repeatedly promoted by influential figures, the market has already reacted.

I have suffered too many losses from "big institutions are optimistic, so buy in." During that wave in 2021, institutions spoke highly, retail investors rushed in, and in the end, it was a mess. The key point is: when UBS says these things, they have already completed their布局. They suggest you "maintain your allocation," sounding nice, but in reality, they just want someone to take the other side at high levels.

The true defensive approach is this: acknowledge the fundamentals are improving, but be clear about valuation risks. The valuation of the S&P 500 is no longer cheap, and the room for rate cuts is limited. Ending a rate hike cycle does not mean the start of wealth, just the completion of risk release. Clarification of tariffs and policies, these "positive signals," are often the easiest to reverse.

Instead of following the crowd into positions, ask yourself three questions first: Where is your cost basis? What is your risk tolerance? Once policies turn, how much decline can you withstand? Think these through, then allocate accordingly. Don’t be blinded by attractive forecasts.