VanEck Cryptocurrency Heat Index triggers buy signal, multiple evidence of Bitcoin bottom now present

VanEck’s MarketVector Indexes latest research shows that its cryptocurrency heat index has issued a clear buy signal for the first time, marking an important turning point since the market bottomed out in April 2025. Meanwhile, Bitcoin development activity has rebounded significantly, institutional funds continue to flow back, and spot ETF net inflows have been recorded. Multiple pieces of evidence point to a market bottom being in place. Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $93,714, with a 7-day increase of 7.52%.

The Professionalism of VanEck Index: Not Just Sentiment, But Structure

The MarketVector Cryptocurrency Heat Index is not a simple sentiment indicator. According to the index lead, Martin Leinweber, this system combines structural data, technical indicators, and proprietary moving averages to trigger systematic buy or sell signals when market conditions change.

What does the index reading mean?

The current index reading is 16.8%, entering a deep undervaluation zone. More importantly, its proprietary moving average has recently turned bullish, which is often seen as an important signal of a medium-term trend reversal. Leinweber emphasizes that market breadth is improving, with more and more crypto assets outperforming Bitcoin, indicating that the market has moved out of the previous panic selling phase.

This is not a one-off indicator. Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, also shared this analysis, pointing out that its internal market breadth model has also triggered Bitcoin’s first bullish signal in months. The synchronized confirmation of two independent systems greatly enhances the credibility of the signal.

Multidimensional Evidence of the Market Bottom

Fundamentals Rebound: Development Activity Surges

According to the latest news, Bitcoin’s development ecosystem saw a significant revival in 2025. Bitcoin Core development activity increased sharply, ending a long stagnation since the late 2010s. Specific data include:

• Bitcoin development mailing list discussions increased by approximately 60% year-over-year
• 135 independent code contributors participated in protocol optimization throughout the year
• The first third-party security audit of Bitcoin’s codebase was completed, conducted by cybersecurity firm Quarkslab
• The audit concluded that the codebase is “mature and thoroughly tested,” with no serious or high-risk vulnerabilities found

This result significantly boosts confidence among institutional and sovereign-level participants in Bitcoin infrastructure. In terms of funding, institutions like Brink, Btrust, OpenSats have expanded their pools, and some spot Bitcoin ETF issuers have begun to “replenish” the underlying infrastructure, creating a virtuous cycle.

Capital Flow Confirmation: Continued Institutional Reflows

Data from US spot ETFs best illustrate this point. According to statistics, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of nearly $459 million last week after two consecutive weeks of net outflows. Specifically:

• BlackRock’s IBIT led with $324 million in net inflows, with total inflows reaching $62.38 billion
• Leading products like Fidelity’s FBTC and Bitwise’s BITB also recorded weekly net inflows
• As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $116.95 billion, accounting for 6.53% of Bitcoin’s total market cap

The shift from continuous net outflows to net inflows reflects a clear change in institutional fund sentiment.

Price Performance: Rebound Has Started

Bitcoin is currently trading at $93,714.75, with a market cap of $1.87 trillion, accounting for 58.38% of the overall crypto market. Recent trends show a 7.52% increase over 7 days and a 1.01% rise in 24 hours, which are clear rebound signals at the market bottom.

Why Now Is a Window for Reassessment

Leinweber stated on social platforms that for investors with insufficient crypto allocations, this could be a key window to reassess their portfolios rather than passively entering after a clear rebound. He believes that overall market sentiment may already be approaching the lows of this cycle.

This judgment is based on an important observation: market bottoms often form at the most pessimistic moments, not when everyone is optimistic. When authoritative institutions like VanEck issue buy signals, coupled with a revival in development activity, institutional fund inflows, and spot ETF normalization, these synchronized multidimensional signs reflect this bottoming characteristic.

The Repair Space in 2026

VanEck repeatedly emphasizes Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. The firm believes that after a period of relative underperformance, with the improvement of global liquidity conditions and the return of institutional funds, Bitcoin’s price in 2026 has significant room for recovery and rebound. According to the information, VanEck recommends dollar-cost averaging 1%-3% in Bitcoin, and considers that the current potential decline is limited, with 2026 more likely to be a year of consolidation.

Summary

The buy signal from VanEck’s cryptocurrency heat index is not an isolated event but a concentrated reflection of multiple pieces of evidence indicating that the market bottom has been reached. The revival of development activity, the return of institutional funds, the normalization of spot ETFs, and price rebounds all point in one direction: Bitcoin may have already emerged from its most pessimistic phase.

For investors, the key is not to chase highs but to make allocation decisions when market sentiment is near the bottom. When authoritative institutions simultaneously send bullish signals, it often indicates that a market turning point has arrived. The recovery space in 2026 is opening opportunities for those who position themselves at the bottom.