The signals in the perpetual contract market are starting to get interesting. CryptoQuant's data shows that the funding rate has fallen to its lowest level since December 2023, which is no coincidence — it indicates a clear decline in the market’s willingness to maintain long positions. Recently, some aggressive traders I follow have begun adjusting their position structures, shifting from full-margin chasing to layered shorting. This transition is worth observing.

The key support level of $70,000 is a number I remember. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken below the 365-day moving average, which has always been a critical line for the long-term trend. However, this bear market is expected to have the smallest decline in history at around 55%, implying that the downside potential is actually limited — it’s this "less severe" bear market that tests traders’ psychological resilience and risk management skills the most.

My strategy adjustment is as follows: for aggressive copy-trading targets, I now recommend cautious observation, as their historical returns are often achieved in clearly trending markets. Conversely, traders who are good at risk control and strict stop-loss in volatile conditions should be weighted more heavily at this stage. The logic of position splitting also needs to change — it’s not just about simple diversification, but about re-evaluating your risk tolerance based on different traders’ styles.

The demand side of this cycle has already saturated; new leverage is decreasing, and the frenzy in the perpetual market is fading. Long-term holders should be aware of this, while short-term followers need to be more alert.