SOL Technical Outlook: Solana Stabilizes at Major Demand After Prolonged Downtrend

Solana remains in a broader bearish structure after a strong rejection from the $240–$253 macro supply zone, where price topped near the 1.0 Fibonacci level. This rejection marked a clear distribution phase, ending the prior bullish expansion and initiating a sustained decline.

The bearish momentum accelerated once SOL lost the $201–$185 region (0.618–0.5 Fib), flipping this zone into heavy overhead resistance and confirming a trend shift in favor of sellers.

EMA Structure (Bearish-to-Stabilizing Alignment)

20 EMA – $129.17

50 EMA – $136.38

100 EMA – $150.86

200 EMA – $162.37

SOL is trading below all major EMAs, with the 20 & 50 EMA starting to flatten, suggesting early signs of stabilization. However, the 100 & 200 EMA remain firmly above price, keeping the broader trend bearish and rallies corrective for now.

Fibonacci & Price Structure

1 Fib: $253.47

0.786 Fib: $224.22

0.618 Fib: $201.25

0.5 Fib: $185.12

0.382 Fib: $168.99

0.236 Fib: $149.03

Fib 0: $116.77

SOL is currently consolidating between $125–$138, holding above the Fib 0 base at $116.77 and forming a short-term accumulation range after the sharp November–December selloff.

A reclaim of $149 (0.236 Fib) would be the first technical signal of recovery, opening upside toward $169–$185, where strong Fibonacci and EMA confluence resistance exists.

RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 63

RSI has rebounded into bullish momentum territory, indicating strong short-term buying interest. However, since structure remains bearish, this momentum currently supports a relief rally or consolidation, not a confirmed trend reversal.

📊 Key Levels

Resistance

$138–$150 (range top / 0.236 Fib / EMA resistance)

$169 (0.382 Fib)

$185–$201 (0.5–0.618 Fib / major supply)

Support

$125–$130 (short-term demand)

$116.77 (Fib 0 / major downside support)

$105 (extended downside risk zone)

📌 Summary

SOL is attempting to build a base after a deep corrective move from macro highs. While momentum has improved and price is stabilizing above key demand, the broader trend remains bearish unless Solana can reclaim the $149–$169 resistance zone with strength.

Failure to hold above $116.77 would expose SOL to further downside risk, while sustained acceptance above $185 would significantly improve the medium-term outlook.

$SOL
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