Based on Jintou data and contract indicators, the crypto market tonight is leaning towards bearish (60%-70%), more likely to experience "sharp rise and fall / oscillating downward," with higher risk of correction for highly elastic coins (such as PEPE).

Core basis (Jintou + Contract perspective)

- Macro and sentiment: BTC briefly surged to 93,000 before pulling back. The Fear & Greed Index remains in extreme fear (20), diverging from the price, indicating insufficient bullish confidence. Under geopolitical disturbances, gold/USD strengthened, funds may be diverted, and the safe-haven attribute of cryptocurrencies is not fully reflected.
- Technicals and overbought conditions: BTC approaching previous resistance zone, minor divergence at higher timeframes + RSI at high levels, increasing probability of a correction after overbought conditions.
- Contract indicators: Open interest rising, concentrated long positions, a fall in BTC could trigger a long squeeze; high elasticity coins' funding rates are elevated, posing a risk of profit-taking selling pressure.
- Bullish hedges: Net inflows into ETFs, whale accumulation, etc., are medium to long-term positives, but short-term technical and sentiment pressures are hard to offset.

Key trigger signals (for short positions)

- Bearish triggers: BTC breaks below 91,000 support with increased volume; funding rates turn quickly negative, open interest drops sharply; US tech stocks weaken.
- Bullish triggers: BTC stabilizes above 93,000 with increased volume; large institutional net inflows, contract long-short ratio rebounds.

Trading strategies

- Entry: Short at resistance zones (BTC 92,500-93,000, PEPE 0.0000075-0.0000080) on rebound, or short on breakdown of support.
- Stop-loss: Set stop-loss above resistance when entering on rebound; set stop-loss above support when entering on breakdown.
- Take profit: BTC target 90,000-89,000; PEPE target 0.0000055-0.0000047.