We are living in an era full of upheavals, especially looking towards 2026, when market volatility will become even more intense.

The market is like the tide. When it rises, countless people chase the rally to enter the market, fearing to miss out; when it falls, they cut losses and escape, fearing things will get worse. But whether it rises or falls, the essence is a game of capital—rule makers always profit handsomely, while retail investors? With limited resources, funds, and connections, even hard work makes it difficult to reach the top of the pyramid.

Therefore, what we can do is see through appearances and understand the true logic behind market operations. Ultimately, any investment market is about a few people making money while most people are just along for the ride. This reality is harsh, but understanding it can give us direction—striving to become that few.

Is it really so hard to become one of the few? Not really, the problem lies in human nature. Greed and fear will constantly torment your judgment during bull and bear cycles. When the market surges, you become anxious about gains and losses; when it crashes, you panic and cut losses. These feelings are normal because human nature is like that. The key is to acknowledge these emotions but not be controlled by them.

How can we do that? One sentence: dance to the rhythm of the big players.

Every complete bull and bear cycle is essentially a dance performed by the big players. Different stages have completely different rhythms—slow accumulation, rapid rally, volatile distribution, chaotic consolidation. Retail investors are most prone to making mistakes by dancing along with the crowd. For example, the recent pervasive fear sentiment is actually the anxiety among retail investors spreading among themselves; many even start doubting the prospects of the crypto space. Worse still, some opinion leaders are also following the trend and spreading pessimism.

What is the correct attitude towards the market? Don’t be a prophet, be a well-prepared participant. When the market declines, minimize risks; when it rises, seize the opportunity to profit.

Want to judge whether the market will crash? Watch the actions of major institutions. For example, big funds like MicroStrategy and BlackRock can reveal a lot through their holdings. As long as they are not experiencing a large-scale sell-off, the fundamentals of the crypto market are still intact. Of course, large funds frequently move in and out of the market, some for short-term arbitrage, others for long-term allocation. Institutions have investment cycle limits; when the cycle ends, they must redeem. That’s the surface reason. But you must understand that some sharp fluctuations may have deeper meanings—possibly artificially manipulated.

Understanding these will help you stay clear-headed amid the rising and falling tides.