#永续合约市场 Seeing this wave of market activity, I can't help but think back to the wild growth period of perpetual contracts in 2017. At that time, leverage trading was just emerging, and everyone thought they were trading geniuses. But a single overnight crash wiped out countless accounts. Honestly, today's situation reminds me of a certain echo of history.

Bitcoin repeatedly tests the 90,000 level, while Ethereum breaks through 3000 but can only maintain narrow fluctuations. I've seen this "want to rise but hold back" stance too many times. The most alarming thing isn't the price itself, but the market's fragility—$195 million in liquidations over 24 hours, behind which are stories of many accounts being wiped out. What does the double kill of longs and shorts indicate? It shows that no one truly understands the direction; everyone is just gambling.

Perpetual contracts fundamentally amplify human greed and fear. In 2021, I saw too many dreams of sudden wealth shattered overnight. Those altcoins labeled as "爆拉" (explosive rise), like LIGHT, ICNT, and others, follow the same套路: first create FOMO, then precisely harvest. History tells us that when the market has no themes, someone will always create false themes.

The current situation is—it's very hard to find genuine profit opportunities. The Alpha sector can still rise slowly, but contract tokens are up 4x today and then crash back tomorrow. This indicates that new capital is drying up, and existing capital is battling internally.

My advice is old-fashioned but based on painful lessons: a pullback to support levels can be considered for deployment, but stop-loss must be strictly set. If you can't break through key resistance, shorting in reverse is a smarter way to protect your funds. The biggest temptation of perpetual contracts is leverage, which also makes it easiest to overlook risks. The traders who last the longest are often not the ones who make the most money, but those who are the most cautious.