#比特币价格预测 Seeing Bitcoin repeatedly test the 89,000 level and then break through towards 93,500, I suddenly recall the market rally of 2017. Back then, we watched the price approach key levels again and again, filled with expectations. The only difference was that there weren’t as many analyst arguments; it was more based on intuition and belief.

Now, the narrative has shifted to "history repeating itself"—after RSI falls below oversold five times, it then rises again, and this time should be no different. Some even predict a surge to 170,000 within three months. It sounds exciting, but I need to remind myself: each cycle has its unique background. The macro environment after 2023, the strength of institutional entry, and the progress of tokenization—all these factors are indeed different.

But what is more real? The current market is already quite weak. Alpha coins are slowly rising, contract tokens quadruple in a day then crash back down, and the profit-making effect in the secondary market is weakening. 1.17 million traders got liquidated within 24 hours, and the entire on-chain activity appears exhausted and lacking heat. Behind these numbers reflects participants’ patience wearing thin and genuine risks accumulating.

Whether Bitcoin can effectively break through the 90,500 level is crucial. If it can, the next target could be around 91,600 to 92,000. But if it cannot break through consistently, signals for shorting will appear. The value of historical reference lies in reminding us of the existence of patterns, not in guaranteeing anything. Those predictions of reaching 170,000—just listen to them—trading decisions should still be based on fundamentals and the real market heat.

Institutions are indeed deploying, but retail traders’ survival space is being squeezed. This might be more worth pondering than price predictions.