2026-01-05 05:00:31

#美联储降息预期升温 # How to Play Gold in the Short Term? Core Logic Breakdown

The recent situation in Venezuela has indeed sparked a surge in safe-haven demand, pushing gold past 4400. The underlying logic looking forward is quite clear: the Federal Reserve is likely to loosen policy around 2026 (with institutions generally predicting 2-4 rate cuts), while the US dollar's global appeal is waning, and central banks worldwide are still continuously accumulating gold. These factors provide the confidence for gold to move upward.

However, there are some recent concerns. During the week of January 8-14, Bloomberg Commodity Index will be reweighted, which may passively trigger a 3% sell-off in gold. Coupled with year-end profit-taking and increased margin requirements, volatility could intensify at any moment.

**How to operate? Never chase highs.** If gold retraces and stabilizes around 4320-4250, that’s the real entry point. The range of 4450-4550 faces significant short-term resistance, making it difficult to break through in one go.

Keep a close eye on risks: the US non-farm payroll data on January 9 could directly change expectations for rate cuts, potentially causing a big wave. It’s recommended to set stop-losses for long positions below 4320-4250—don’t be soft-hearted.

*Disclaimer: This is for market opinion discussion only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risks.*

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MindsetExpander

· 18h ago

Bloomberg's adjustment week indeed requires caution; a 3% sell-off is no joke. Non-farm payroll data is the real minefield; a single number can overturn all logic, despite the current hot expectations for rate cuts. The 4320-4250 level is indeed worth defending, but honestly, it's hard for anyone to truly cut losses there; instead, everyone will likely chase the highs later. A correction is definitely coming, but the question is whether you can hold your nerve and not move; that's the hardest part. The story of the central bank hoarding gold has been told for so long, but gold still depends on how Americans view it. Rather than obsessing over the trend, it's better to set your stop-loss properly; mindset is more valuable than the position itself. In the short term, it's just a bet on non-farm payrolls, nothing fancy. The logic that the dollar's attractiveness is declining sounds good, but in practice, you still have to let the data speak. 4400 has already been broken, but breaking the level doesn't mean a trend change; don't get carried away by the atmosphere. Definitely avoid showing off above 4450; history tells us there's no good fruit at such levels.

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YieldChaser

· 01-07 03:34

Be cautious during the week Bloomberg adjusts weights; a 3% passive sell-off is no joke. We'll have to see if the non-farm payrolls can save the day then.

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PumpDoctrine

· 01-06 02:28

The 4320-4250 range is really a trap. How many people will be stopped out and swept here later?

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FUDwatcher