#机构采用与配置 Galaxy's report is interesting not because of the $250,000 figure, but because of the line "2026 may be relatively dull."

Looking at options pricing makes it clear — at the end of June, the probability of BTC falling to 70,000 or rising to 130,000 is equal; by the end of the year, the probability of falling to 50,000 or rising to 250,000 is also equal. This extremely wide volatility range precisely indicates that institutions are still in the testing phase and haven't formed a unified expectation. But this is the key information: the degree of institutional participation is increasing, the scale of covered call writing and income strategies is expanding, and the volatility smile curve has already reversed — put options are now priced higher than call options.

What does this mean? Institutions are engaging in allocation strategies rather than speculation. They are building defensive positions.

From a copy-trading perspective, future opportunities are not about chasing highs and lows, but about identifying who is genuinely allocating and who is speculating on expectations. Traders who continuously add positions in low-volatility assets and stick to dollar-cost averaging strategies are more worth following than those who frequently buy high and sell low. Because the former's logic can carry through the entire 2026 cycle, while the latter is more likely to blow up in the face of macro uncertainty.

In years of wide-range oscillation, risk management > aggressive gains. When copy trading, deliberately underestimate expected returns and tighten stop-loss discipline. Long-term bullishness is fine, but don’t get shaken out by short-term volatility.