#流动性与利率政策 Seeing the recent debates about liquidity and interest rate cut prospects, I am reminded of the 2015 cycle. Back then, it was the same — central banks swinging back and forth between inflation and employment, market expectations shifting from bearish to bullish on liquidity, and in the end, no one guessed right.

The current situation is somewhat a replay of that era, but the details are completely different. Luke Gromen has held his position from below $30,000 all the way to today without selling, and the story behind this position alone is worth pondering — but his short-term bearish logic now mainly boils down to: unless there's a true "nuclear-level printing of money," what we're facing is tightening, not easing. I have to take this judgment seriously.

The contradiction lies here. On one side, there are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve — a White House advisor says inflation is actually below target, and the Fed has ample room to continue cutting rates; on the other side, Harker and others are more concerned about sticky inflation, advocating to hold steady at least until spring. Meanwhile, the recent 25 basis point rate hike in Japan just concluded, indicating that the former global liquidity exporter is starting to tighten liquidity. How much capital will this drain from U.S. Treasury holders? Wall Street’s concerns are not unfounded.

Historically, when major central banks’ policies start to diverge, it often signals a liquidity turning point. At the end of 2018, the ECB stopped QE while the Fed was still raising rates, resulting in a Christmas crash. The current backdrop is the opposite, but the divergence signals are just as clear. Weak labor market data is also real, providing ammunition for rate cut advocates, but the wide interpretation space of inflation data shows that market consensus has already shattered.

My feeling is: in the short term, don’t be too fixated on directional judgments, because policy uncertainty itself is the biggest risk factor. Look at Tether’s asset allocation changes — they are increasing holdings in gold and AI, while reducing dependence on crypto assets, which might reflect institutional views on liquidity prospects more accurately than any analyst’s words.

Cycles often suddenly turn when things seem most clear.