#比特币价格预测 Seeing these forecast numbers, I can't help but think back to the crazy times of 2017. Back then, various institutions were shouting prices, from 6,000 to 20,000, then from 20,000 to 50,000, but all conclusions pointed in one direction — only upward. As we all know the outcome.

Now, the situation has reversed. Citigroup predicts 143,000, Galaxy says 250,000 by 2027, and Arthur Hayes even came up with a dreamy figure of one million dollars. Meanwhile, Fundstrat's Sean Farrell suggests Bitcoin could drop to 60,000 to 65,000 in the first half of 2026. The options market pricing is even more interesting — the probability of dropping to 70,000 and rising to 130,000 is almost the same.

This is what a mature market looks like. No longer a one-way celebration, but genuine disagreement.

Looking ahead, I’ve experienced the sharp decline of 2013, the long bear market of 2018, and the altcoin frenzy of 2021. Every time, some say it’s over, and others say it will come again. The current question isn’t how high Bitcoin will go, but how turbulent the process will be.

The probability of dropping to $100,000 has fallen from market expectations to 10%, which precisely indicates what — the window for reaching that level may indeed be closing. But I agree with Galaxy that predicting 2026 is difficult. Macro variables are too many — yen, dollar, Federal Reserve policies, AI capital expenditure — each can rewrite the script.

Short-term volatility is inevitable; institutional inflows are the long-term trend. Those who are accumulating at the bottom are never swayed by these forecast disagreements. History shows that each cycle replays its own tragedy and comedy, but the script is always evolving. My strategy remains the same — focus on support levels, wait for confirmation signals, avoid following predictions blindly, and only follow the trend for arbitrage.