#我的2026第一条帖 The first week of the new year has started off well, setting a somewhat optimistic tone for January's market, but the road is destined to be bumpy.

Bitcoin: The core task is to confirm the validity of the breakout above $90,000. The ideal path is to complete oscillation and consolidation within the $88,500-$92,000 range, digesting profit-taking and accumulating strength for subsequent upward movement.
If the pullback does not break below $88,000, the rebound is expected to continue toward $95,000. The risk to watch is that if the price quickly surges but fails to stabilize, and then falls back below $90,000, it could form a false breakout, returning to the $86,000-$90,000 range for sideways oscillation.
Ethereum: Its trend will continue to be anchored to Bitcoin. It is important to observe whether it can break free from the weak follow-up rally and independently strengthen past $3,200, which would greatly boost confidence in the entire altcoin market. Otherwise, it may continue to oscillate within a range, waiting for Bitcoin to give a clearer direction.
Long-term outlook for 2026
1. Institutional reports point us in the right direction: the market is transitioning from a “teenage” phase driven by retail sentiment and narratives to an “adulthood” or “industrialization” phase driven by institutional allocation, compliance frameworks, and real utility. This means: volatility may trend downward, opportunities for one-sided wealth accumulation may decrease, and patience and strategic planning in investments will be required.
2. The weight of fundamental analysis will increase, with protocols and sectors capable of generating stable cash flow and solving real-world problems (such as DeFi, RWA, AI + blockchain) gaining more attention.
3. The narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” will become more closely linked to global macro liquidity (debt, interest rate cut cycles).