Soybean Complex Faces Year-End Selling Pressure as Oil Prices Slip Lower

The soybean market wrapped up the pre-holiday session with notable weakness across the board. Futures contracts retreated 13 to 16 cents, reflecting sustained selling pressure into year-end. The January delivery cycle saw 1,062 deliveries issued, signaling active physical settlement activity. Cash bean pricing declined by 15¼ cents to settle at $9.64 3/4 per bushel, according to the cmdtyView national average.

Soy Products Show Broad-Based Decline

Soybean meal futures experienced sharper losses, trading down $1.50 to $2.90 per ton. Soy oil price movements proved even more severe, with contracts shedding 77 to 88 points during the session. The soy oil market’s weakness reflected broader commodity pressure, though the January soy oil contract recorded 7 deliveries against zero for soybean meal. As markets prepare for Thursday’s New Year closure, trading resumes Friday morning at 8:30 am CST with a hard open.

Managed Money Reduces Long Positioning

CFTC positioning data finally returned after holiday-related delays, revealing important shifts in market structure. Managed money maintains a net long position of 110,403 contracts, down substantially by 37,375 contracts from the previous reporting week. This reduction signals potential tactical positioning ahead of 2025 uncertainty.

USDA Weekly Sales Disappoint Expectations

The latest USDA export report for the week ending December 18 showed weaker-than-anticipated sales momentum. Only 1.056 million metric tons of soybeans moved into export channels, falling well short of trade expectations ranging from 1.4 to 2.4 MMT—a 55.94% week-over-week decline. However, year-over-year comparisons painted a different picture, with sales up 7.9% from the same week in the prior year.

China purchases through mid-December reached 6.5 MMT when combining known direct sales and recent flash sales. This figure dramatically outpaces the 3.5 MMT recorded by this same period during the 2018/19 marketing year, a time marked by heightened trade tensions. The contrast highlights shifting trade dynamics despite current market uncertainty.

Meal and Oil Sales Tell Different Stories

Soybean meal sales registered 299,131 MT, positioned near the lower bounds of the 200,000-500,000 MT estimate range. Soy oil markets showed relative strength, with 49,197 MT sold for the 2025/26 crop year—exceeding initial expectations of 0-24,000 MT. However, net reductions of 23,500 MT were recorded for 2026/27 positions, suggesting some profit-taking.

Contract Settlements Show Consistent Pressure

The March 26 contract closed down 14¾ cents at $10.47 1/2, while May 26 futures declined 13½ cents to $10.61, reinforcing the broad-based nature of the selloff. The nearby cash market at $9.64 3/4 reflects the pressure evident throughout the futures curve as traders square positions before the holiday break.