Pentagon pizza, Polymarket's money

Writing by: Frog Frog, Deep Tide TechFlow

During the Cold War, Soviet agents had a daily task:

Counting how many lights were on at the Pentagon at night, how many cars were in the parking lot.

At the same time, they monitored another indicator: how many pizza deliveries were made late at night.

The logic was simple. When a war was imminent, everyone worked overtime, and overtime meant eating. The only thing that could be delivered to the Pentagon at 2 a.m. was pizza.

In 1990, Frank Meeks, a Domino’s franchise owner in Washington, was interviewed by the Los Angeles Times and shared a story.

On the night of August 1st, his store delivered 21 pizzas to the CIA.

This was a single-night record.

The next day, Iraq invaded Kuwait, and the Gulf War broke out.

Meeks recalled that this was not the first time. The night before the invasion of Grenada in 1983, his store’s late-night orders jumped from the usual 40-50 to nearly 100. Before the invasion of Panama in 1989, orders at three Washington pizza shops tripled.

CNN’s Pentagon correspondent Wolf Blitzer, after hearing this story, said a phrase that would be repeatedly quoted later:

“Journalists’ bottom line: always watch the pizza.”

This pattern was later named the “Pentagon Pizza Index.”

During Clinton’s impeachment in 1998, the White House ordered $2,600 worth of pizza from Domino’s in three days. The same year, after the U.S. airstrikes in Iraq in December, pizza orders at Capitol Hill increased by 32% compared to normal.

In 2004, Frank Meeks passed away at the age of 48.

But his observation lived on.

In August 2024, someone registered a Twitter account called @PenPizzaReport.

This account does one thing: using Google Maps’ “Popular Times” feature, it monitors in real-time the foot traffic at several pizza shops near the Pentagon. District Pizza Palace, Domino’s, We the Pizza, Papa John’s—when each store is busier than usual, how busy they are, can all be seen.

The account quickly gained 80,000 followers.

Some went further and created a website called pizzint.watch, automating the monitoring. The homepage features an index called “Pizza DEFCON,” from 1 to 5, with 5 being peacetime and 1 indicating imminent war. Updated every 10 minutes.

What Soviet agents tracked during the Cold War is now visible to anyone who opens the webpage.

On the evening of June 12, 2025, at 7 p.m., @PenPizzaReport posted a tweet: “Almost all pizza shops near the Pentagon are experiencing a huge surge in foot traffic.”

The accompanying screenshot was from Google Maps, showing that the real-time foot traffic at District Pizza Palace was significantly higher than usual.

At the same time, a comrade bar near the Pentagon had abnormally low customer flow. This is another old indicator: if Pentagon personnel are working overtime, nearby bars tend to be quiet.

A few hours later, Israel launched an airstrike on Iran.

At 10:38 p.m. on June 22, @PenPizzaReport issued another warning: abnormal foot traffic at Papa John’s.

An hour later, Trump announced U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Alex Selby-Boothroyd, head of data journalism at The Economist, wrote on LinkedIn: “The Pizza Index has been an astonishingly reliable predictor of major global events since the 1980s.”

Does the Pentagon know about this?

Yes.

Last October, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was asked in an interview with Fox News about the pizza tracking account. He said, “I know that account. I’ve thought about ordering a bunch of pizzas on a random night just to confuse them.”

A Pentagon spokesperson also responded, saying there’s plenty to eat inside the building—pizza, sushi, sandwiches, donuts—no need for takeout.

But orders still increase.

There are rumors that after the Gulf War in 1991, the Pentagon started dispersing orders across multiple restaurants to avoid abnormal peaks at a single pizza place.

But Google Maps doesn’t care which store you order from. It monitors the entire area’s foot traffic.

In the early hours of January 3, the U.S. military launched a surprise raid on Venezuela, arresting Maduro.

Later, someone reviewed pizzint.watch records. Hours before the operation, the Pizza DEFCON rose to level 4, with foot traffic nearly doubling.

@PenPizzaReport also issued a warning.

But this story isn’t just about pizza.

Chain analyst lookonchain discovered that three wallets on Polymarket heavily bet on “Maduro stepping down” hours before the event.

These three wallets share several characteristics:

They were all created just a few days earlier. They only bet on Venezuela-related markets. No other transaction records.

One wallet registered on December 27, invested $34,000, when the odds of Maduro stepping down before January 31 were only 6%. Another invested $5,800, and the third invested $25,000.

By the time Trump posted on Truth Social at 4:21 a.m., the total profit of these three wallets was:

$630,000.

According to The New Republic, the U.S. military discussed this operation as early as Christmas Day. One wallet was registered on December 27.

Coincidence?

The Wall Street Journal reported that total bets on Maduro on Polymarket amounted to $56.6 million. Of these, $40 million were on Maduro stepping down before the end of November or December, all lost.

These three wallets bet on before January 31.

But who are these wallets?

No one knows. The on-chain addresses are public, but the people behind them are not. Polymarket operates on the Polygon chain, with servers outside the U.S.

U.S. Congressman Ritchie Torres proposed a bill called the “2026 Public Integrity Financial Prediction Market Act,” banning federal officials and insiders from betting on prediction markets.

But even if it’s someone from the White House betting, you can’t find out.

Some say it’s insider trading.

Others say maybe they just saw the Pizza Index.

Putting the timeline together:

In the 1980s, Soviet agents tracked pizza deliveries. That was their professional skill.

In the 1990s, Frank Meeks shared this pattern with journalists. It became an urban legend.

In 2024, someone used Google Maps to make it a public website. Anyone can see it.

In 2026, someone watched this public information and made $630,000 in prediction markets.

By the way, The New York Times and The Washington Post also knew about this before the operation started. But both chose not to publish, citing reasons of protecting military security and adhering to the “long-standing American journalistic tradition.”

While traditional media hesitated whether to report, the information had already leaked.

Today, the old order of information is loosening. “Who knew first” is being redefined.

In the new order, information is scattered across various public data, waiting to be discovered, combined, and priced.

When the Pentagon’s appetite becomes a global oracle, we realize:

The fog of war still exists; it no longer smells like gunpowder, but perhaps like pizza.