Regarding Bitcoin trends, our analysis has never been fixated on the four-year cycle theory. This kind of cyclical prediction framework has been outside our consideration since last year. Each market cycle has its own temperament, and comparing past cycles to the current one is honestly quite unreliable.

That said, the data currently in front of us is quite interesting. The price performance in previous cycles surprisingly repeats itself in this cycle.

Specifically, Bitcoin tends to surge after halving, reaching a peak around the 80th week post-halving. After that, it begins to decline, breaking below the weekly SMA. Historically, this has always been the case, with the following months seeing a continuous decline. Each cycle also tends to retest this level—this cycle is likely to do so as well. Although a retest hasn't occurred yet in this cycle, considering the recent 3-day divergence between Bitcoin and the index, the probability of a retest still exists.

There's a rather strange pattern: peak at 80 weeks after halving, then a 12-month bear market, followed by a macro bottom around the 135th week post-halving. Historically, this signals a long-term buying opportunity. Based on this logic, Q4 2026 could be a critical low point.

Of course, we will continue to rely on technical indicators for judgment and not be entirely bound by historical patterns. But since this pattern has been precisely replicated throughout the entire cycle, it's worth paying more attention to. Tracking the TV indicator (Bitcoin halving cycle profit) can provide valuable insights.