#美联储政策与降息 Waller's recent stance is quite interesting—acknowledging soft employment, supporting a gradual rate cut, while also emphasizing the Federal Reserve's independence in front of Trump. This balancing act is crucial because the pace of upcoming rate cuts directly affects market liquidity, which in turn influences our follow-trade strategy adjustments.

Honestly, in an environment where rate cut expectations are heating up, the success rate of aggressive traders often increases significantly. They like to leverage up on the eve of policy shifts, betting on a rebound in risk assets. But this is also the most prone to failure—once expectations fall short or policy signals become ambiguous, stop-losses get triggered en masse. Over the past two years, I've seen many followers suffer losses at such points, simply because they blindly chase aggressive positions of top traders, ignoring risk appetite adjustments.

My advice is to view this in layers: if your risk tolerance is limited, prioritize following traders who stick to risk control discipline even amid rate cut expectations. They usually don't have the highest win rate, but their drawdowns are manageable; conversely, if you have sufficient risk budget, you can moderately follow traders who are highly sensitive to policy changes, but you must set clear position sizing and stop-loss levels. Practice has shown that during rate cut cycles, the most profitable are not those who go all-in, but the old foxes who know how to sway between risk and reward.