The market is highly skeptical about whether the proposed $2,000 "tariff dividend" checks for Trump will be issued on time, as there is a significant gap between the likelihood of the plan's establishment and the actual issuance. Polymarket traders estimate a 45% chance that the plan will be established by June 30, 2026, but Kalshi's data shows that the probability of the checks being issued "before June" is only 15%. This reflects anticipated bureaucratic delays and a substantial funding shortfall, as the Tax Foundation estimates the annual cost of the program at $606.8 billion, far exceeding the projected tariff revenue of $207.5 billion in 2026.