2026-01-02 12:22:40

Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has entered new monthly and quarterly cycle periods, providing us with valuable macro insights. Especially the three-month cycle, which is crucial for judging BTC's overall yearly trend.

Looking back at history, BTC experienced a bearish divergence on the three-month chart last summer—this is the fourth time such a situation has occurred in the past 12 years. Interestingly, each time a three-month divergence appeared, it corresponded with a cycle top for BTC. Since early October, we have been monitoring this signal.

In recent days, the three-month closing has again turned red, consistent with previous cycle patterns. Whenever this occurs, BTC tends to top out and then enter a bear market phase, with the following months usually showing a downward trend.

This judgment aligns with several other technical consensus points: the January, two-week, and weekly charts all show bearish divergence; the diagonal upward trendline has been broken; the 102,000 simple moving average on the weekly chart is creating resistance; the macro RSI is also confirmed below support levels. Overall, the consensus for price decline within the year is much stronger than for a rally.

Unless BTC reconstructs its macro structure, a new high within the year lacks fundamental support. Of course, in the short term, due to the formation of several three-day divergences, a retest around 102,000 cannot be completely ruled out.

The new trend will ultimately test its boundaries, either upward or downward, to truly confirm the direction. My personal annual strategy is: during short-term rebounds, maintain a bearish outlook on altcoins, while looking for BTC's next macro bottom to establish long-term positions.

BTC0,52%

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HalfPositionRunner

· 4h ago

March's red line is back, is it really going to crash this time... --- 102k resistance is so strong, feels like I need to try again --- Historically, it has topped out 4 times? These data are a bit scary --- Instead of guessing the top, it's better to wait for the bottom, well said --- I agree with the bearish mindset on altcoins, sell on rebounds --- The macro structure hasn't been reconstructed, why push for new highs? --- The RSI support below this signal cannot be ignored --- In the short term, it will test 102k again, but in the long term, it's indeed uncertain --- Frequent bearish divergences appear, and the bearish market expectation is getting stronger --- Instead of chasing highs, it's better to wait for adjustments, holding cash feels more comfortable

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MidnightSeller

· 16h ago

It's another March line divergence, sounds a bit cliché Feels like this is indeed a top signal, unable to break above the 102k resistance level There might be a short-term rebound test, but in the long run, a new bottom is still expected Wait, did you really catch all four historical divergences you mentioned? Let's stay prepared for a bearish move; this altcoin wave is really risky

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ImpermanentLossFan

· 01-02 12:52

It's that March line divergence again. How come this pattern has only appeared a few times in history and is so accurate? The bearish consensus is so strong that it's making me a bit hesitant... In the short term, we might still push to 102k, but don't just crash down suddenly. Wait for the bottom to buy the dip. I like this strategy, but I'm just worried the bottom hasn't arrived yet.

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ChainMaskedRider

· 01-02 12:50

Four divergences on the March line? Is it really going to break this time? However, I think this kind of purely technical argument is a bit over the top; history isn't that predictable. Short-term rebound to short the fake coins, this idea is indeed reliable. Wait, is there really such a high probability of testing 102k again... Where will the next bottom be? Give us an expectation.

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CrashHotline

· 01-02 12:43

The March line divergence is a bit tiring to hear. Every time it's said to be a top, but the price keeps rising repeatedly, reaching new highs within the year without fundamental support? Then why is it still hovering around 102k?

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ShibaOnTheRun

· 01-02 12:41

Another bearish divergence and 102k resistance—I've heard this explanation too many times. No matter how professional the analysis, the price ultimately speaks. However, the idea of shorting altcoins during a short-term rebound isn't bad; then you can just buy the dip in BTC when the time comes.

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IfIWereOnChain

· 01-02 12:25

The logic of divergence on the March line indicating a top does have some basis, but the perfect technical alignment is a bit too coincidental... The idea of the Kong Mountain Village finding a bottom is good, but you need to be mentally prepared to take a hit. Is the 102k level really that tough? Feels like it could be broken easily. Are historical patterns reliable? The question is whether this time will also be an exception. The bear market is coming, retail investors will be caught again, it's heartbreaking.

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