#比特币价格预测 The $143K target price provided by Citigroup is generally within the expected range. Breaking down the logic: a $70,000 support level is reasonable, as this position corresponds to key points in previous cycles. From the perspective of capital flow, the resurgence in ETF demand has indeed been the core driver recently, and signs of institutional entry can also be observed on-chain.

However, it is important to note that Citigroup has outlined three forecast scenarios—optimistic at 189K, neutral at 143K, and pessimistic at 78.5K, with a span of nearly 110K. This indicates that current uncertainty remains high. The impact of the global economic recession variable has been significantly amplified, which is a primary consideration on the risk side.

The current price at 88K is below the neutral expectation, indicating that market pricing remains somewhat conservative. The key is to observe the subsequent pace of capital inflows. If institutions continue to have net inflows without large-scale outflow signals, the probability of upward recovery will increase. Conversely, if the price breaks below the critical support of 70K, technical signals will weaken, and downside risks will accelerate.

Recently, the focus should still be on monitoring whale addresses' movements and exchange inflow and outflow data, as these are more indicative than forecasts themselves.