#美联储降息政策 Federal Reserve interest rate swap data shows market expectations of a further 3 basis point easing by the end of 2026, which is a signal worth paying attention to. Looking ahead, an extended rate cut cycle implies a shift towards looser liquidity expectations, but this needs to be validated by subsequent capital flow trends.

From an on-chain perspective, such policy expectations are usually reflected in whale movements and large transfers. In the short term, the key is to track whether institutions are beginning to adjust their positions, especially the inflow and outflow rhythm of stablecoins—which often precedes market reactions. It is recommended to focus on monitoring exchange fund movements to determine if large holders are positioning themselves in advance.

Policy easing expectations do not immediately translate into liquidity release; there are many variables in between. The current key is to let the data speak, observing how actual funds are flowing, rather than being led by expectations.