2026-01-02 10:25:52

The beginning of the new year has seen a significant adjustment in the US Treasury market. On the first trading day of 2026, the 30-year Treasury yield surged to 4.88%, hitting a new high since early September, with a single-day increase of 4 basis points; the 10-year Treasury yield also rose by 2 basis points to 4.19%.

The logic behind the market trend is actually not difficult to understand. Last week’s data showed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to its lowest level of the year, indicating a resilient labor market, and investor expectations for the US economy continued to warm. Against this backdrop, the appeal of traditional safe-haven assets like Treasuries has declined—when risk sentiment improves, funds naturally flow toward assets with higher growth potential, weakening demand for Treasuries and pushing prices down, which in turn causes yields to rise.

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TokenTaxonomist

· 01-05 10:16

ngl the yield curve just screamed "yeah we're done with safety" ... tbh saw this coming the moment jobless claims tanked. statistically speaking, treasuries always become the evolutionary dead-end when risk appetite wakes up. per my analysis, 4.88% is basically the market saying "thanks but no thanks" to boomer bonds lmao

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NotFinancialAdvice

· 01-03 18:59

The Americans are starting to play with government bonds again, and this time it's really a bit different. --- 30-year at 4.88? That's outrageous, it feels like it will start to soar by 2026. --- When employment data improves, funds all rush out, and nobody wants government bonds anymore haha. --- Basically, it's still a bet on the US economy. The bullish sentiment this time is too strong. --- Rising yields are telling us that risk assets are about to take off, right? --- Traditional safe-haven assets are completely neglected, and this signal is a bit interesting. --- I don't understand why Americans are so optimistic, but let's see how long we can hold on. --- As soon as initial jobless claims drop, the entire market sentiment flips, which is a bit excessive. --- Wait, if we follow this logic, does it mean there will be a shift next?

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LostBetweenChains

· 01-03 17:50

Good employment data leads to money flowing into risk assets, leaving government bonds out of favor. This logic indeed holds. But with yields jumping like this, is it really attractive? --- As the US economy warms up, safe-haven assets fall out of favor—classic case. But the question is, will this be a fleeting trend... --- The 30-year government bond yield at 4.88%, should I get in now? It feels like the risk sentiment might not be very stable this time. --- Strong employment data prompts selling of government bonds. When the data turns bad someday, these institutions will be crying as they buy back in—classic buy-high, sell-low behavior. --- Improved risk sentiment sounds good, but can this rapid surge be sustainable? I still need to observe a bit. --- So, when the economy is good, government bonds cool off—how many years can this logic last? --- The 30-year yield suddenly jumps to 4.88%. Is this the buying point? Or is it better to wait and see...

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BetterLuckyThanSmart

· 01-02 10:56

Damn, as soon as the employment data looks good, they start selling off government bonds. This wave is really a sign of risk appetite returning.

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MEVHunterZhang

· 01-02 10:55

Once the employment data is released, bonds get hammered. This logic makes sense... Yields jump up, and funds indeed need to find areas of growth.

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OnchainGossiper

· 01-02 10:54

U.S. Treasury yields are soaring again... Are we saying that all the funds are going into crypto trading? Haha --- Good employment data leads to selling government bonds. I can understand this logic, but the real situation might be more complicated. --- A 30-year yield of 4.88% is really tough for fixed income investors. --- I get it, no one wants safe-haven assets anymore; everyone is betting on growth. --- Basically, it's still the warming of U.S. economic expectations, and money is flowing into higher-yield areas. --- Weakening government bonds = risk assets taking off? This logic works every time, but there are pitfalls every time. --- With such high yields, isn't that enough to be attractive... It shows the market is really in a frenzy mode.

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AirdropHunter9000

· 01-02 10:43

Government bond yields are rising, and no one wants safe-haven assets anymore. This is a sign of a good market sentiment. Once employment data is released, funds rush to chase growth stocks, and government bonds become completely abandoned. Looking optimistic about the economic outlook but still holding onto government bonds? These days, you have to bet on risk assets to outperform. A yield of 4.88% sounds good, but compared to the returns during the altseason, it's just a little brother. The US stock market is rising, and government bonds are destined to be dull—it's just a cycle. Everyone is optimistic about the US economy, but government bonds become the opposite of safe-haven assets... Quite interesting.

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FlashLoanLord

· 01-02 10:35

Is the bull market here? Treasury yields are soaring, and funds are flowing into growth stocks The Federal Reserve hasn't cut interest rates yet, but as soon as employment data improves, everyone starts rushing in. I understand this logic What are four basis points? The key is that risk appetite has really returned When unemployment benefits data is good, nobody wants government bonds anymore. Basically, the money is aiming to make bigger gains The 30-year Treasury at 4.88% isn't as attractive as those assets that can double your investment

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MetaMasked

· 01-02 10:30

When employment data is good, everyone rushes to buy cryptocurrencies, and government bonds get caught in the crossfire. Risk sentiment is indeed rising.

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SignatureVerifier

· 01-02 10:29

nah tbh this employment data feels... *incomplete* tho. they're not showing the actual wage validation metrics, right? like, technically speaking, those jobless numbers could be missing seasonal adjustments. require further auditing imo

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