As 2026 begins, warning signals about Bitcoin's technical chart have already emerged within the community. According to CoinGecko's quotes, BTC is currently around $89,000, but this level doesn't seem very stable. The reason is a technical pattern completed three weeks ago — the death cross.

Simply put, the 10-week moving average has fallen below the 50-week moving average. On December 8th, this situation was confirmed on the weekly chart. It sounds very academic, but this signal has appeared several times in history, and each time it has not ended well.

Looking back at the records makes it clear. There was one occurrence in 2014, after which Bitcoin fell 67%. There was another in 2018, with a decline of 54%. In 2020 and 2022, it happened again, with drops of 53% and 64%, respectively. These four historical precedents show that each time, it was not just a short-term correction but a deep adjustment lasting from several months to a year. This indicates that a death cross often signifies a true reversal of the medium- to long-term trend.

However, technical signals alone are not enough; real capital movements behind them are necessary to validate the signal. Fortunately, the activity of whale wallets can serve as confirmation. Throughout 2025, large holders sold approximately $15 billion worth of Bitcoin, continuously creating selling pressure. Spot market data is also weakening in tandem.

Connecting these details makes one a bit restless. Some institutional analysts even suggest that Bitcoin might need to dip to the $56,000–$60,000 range before a rebound occurs. According to data from the predictive market Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026 is only 21%, reflecting market caution about the subsequent rally.

Of course, whether history repeats itself ultimately depends on how the market moves. But this combination of signals is definitely worth paying attention to.