Those calling for a bear market based on candlestick charts are mostly caught in short-term technical fog. A careful observation reveals that altcoins have already touched the bottom region of the previous cycle, which itself hints that market sentiment is shifting.

The macro perspective is even more interesting. The Federal Reserve's subsequent policy direction clearly points toward easing, and the long-term trend of dollar depreciation is difficult to reverse. Just look at the capital inflows into gold and silver — institutions are proactively positioning themselves to hedge risk assets.

In this environment, Bitcoin's appeal as an alternative asset will only increase. The probability of hitting a new high in the first quarter is quite significant. The key is not to be scared by short-term fluctuations; macro liquidity turning points are often more reliable signals than technical indicators.