#数字资产动态追踪 2026 The beginning of the year in the crypto world has been tumultuous, with hot coins like PEPE, FIL, and DOT already making their mark.

**The Real Logic Behind the Market**

The Federal Reserve set the tone right at the start of 2026—interest rates maintained in the 3.50%-3.75% range, with only one 25 basis point cut last year. Basically, this signals that the economy can still hold up, and there won't be large-scale liquidity releases.

The data from the December dot plot is even more straightforward: only a 25 basis point easing is planned for the year, inflation remains sticky at 2.4%, and GDP growth stays around 2.3%. Even the dovish camp is now under heavy pressure.

**Internal Disagreements on Wall Street**

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect two 25 basis point rate cuts (in March and June), while JPMorgan is more conservative, expecting at most one cut. This range from zero to an unrealistic 150 basis points highlights how uncertain the market is.

Another key variable is Powell’s term ending in May. If the successor is more dovish, it could reverse the entire market expectation overnight.

**January FOMC as a Touchstone**

The performance of stocks, cryptocurrencies, and bonds all ultimately points to this meeting. With a steady economic growth, persistent inflation, and sticky prices, the Fed is unlikely to act hastily unless unemployment data suddenly worsens or inflation quickly drops.

**Current Trends**

PEPE is currently at 0.00000512, leading the overall gains with a 25.18% increase. FIL rose from 1.46, gaining 13.17%. DOT futures are also not to be outdone, climbing around 11.82% near 1.995.

**Practical Advice**

Don’t chase, don’t FOMO. The real opportunity comes from the misalignment between policy expectations and actual market reactions, not from chasing hot topics. In this liquidity cycle, the advantage lies in capturing these divergences. Wait for the January FOMC dot plot, observe the market’s true response, and then act—this is the stable approach.