#预测市场发展 After watching CZ's year-end Q&A, I feel like discussing the prediction market sector with everyone. To be honest, this is a rare new opportunity in recent years, but it’s also the most vulnerable to being exploited.

CZ mentioned that the 2026 World Cup will be the next milestone, and projects with strong team execution can achieve short-term success. Sounds tempting, right? But let me pour some cold water — those who truly survive are rarely the ones chasing hot trends.

Having been in this industry for many years, I’ve seen too many projects disappear after a hot event. The current problem with prediction markets is obvious: weak user stickiness. People don’t come to use your product long-term; they come to bet on a specific event. Once the event ends, users disperse. This is essentially the same as FOMO-driven projects, just with a different skin.

What’s even more concerning is the yield trap. CZ mentioned that stablecoins of the 1.5 generation start generating yields, and prediction markets are also thinking about how to give users extra returns. It sounds appealing, but there’s no such thing as a free lunch. Where does the yield come from? If it relies on new users entering the market to sustain it, then it’s just the old shell game of “pump and dump.”

My advice: if you want to participate in prediction markets, don’t be blinded by short-term hot spots. Watch whether the team is truly building a long-term product, rather than just chasing the next event to make quick money. Strong execution doesn’t equal survival; what really matters is whether they have a deep understanding of the market. Choosing the wrong direction, even with strong execution, can lead to faster failure.