#预测市场发展 Seeing the fluctuations in Bitcoin prediction probabilities on Polymarket, I think this reflects a very interesting market phenomenon. An 11% probability is indeed quite cautious, but it precisely illustrates the value of prediction markets — they function like a decentralized "collective intelligence aggregator," bringing together judgments from participants around the world.

Behind this decline in probability, what is reflected is not pessimism, but market participants voting with real money to express their rational assessment of risk. This is the true charm of Web3 prediction markets: no intermediaries manipulating the market, no artificial public opinion guidance, only transparent and verifiable collective consensus.

Market volatility is normal, but in the long run, the story of Bitcoin's value as a digital asset remains unchanged. Instead of obsessing over short-term price predictions, it’s better to focus on the development of prediction markets themselves — these applications are rewriting the way information is priced and risks are assessed, which is the real embodiment of Web3 transforming traditional finance. The market will provide answers, and those who dare to participate and verify are shaping a more transparent future.