#比特币价格走势 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again this year on Polymarket drop to 11%, I actually feel relieved. This is the true voice of the market.

I remember at the beginning of the year, many people were shouting "Bitcoin will definitely hit $100,000," with all kinds of narratives like "institutions entering the market" and "rare opportunity" flying around. I have seen too many people go all-in in such emotions, only to get trapped at high levels. Now, the prediction data shows a 24% chance of falling below $80,000, which indicates that market participants are finally starting to price things rationally.

The key is to understand a logical point: when the hype around a certain price prediction is the highest and participation is the most frantic, that is often when the risk is greatest. The 11% probability tells us that real money participants are no longer blindly optimistic. Instead, the 32% chance of $95,000 is more worth paying attention to — it suggests that everyone expects a relatively moderate upward space rather than a skyrocket.

The secret to surviving long on-chain is to always be cautious during the moments of strongest market consensus. Those moments usually indicate a top. Rather than chasing probabilities, it’s better to spend time understanding the project’s essence, risk exposure, and exit plans. The market will give you enough opportunities, as long as you survive long enough.