#比特币价格走势 It's interesting to see this data—the probability of Bitcoin reaching 100,000 again this year has dropped to 11%, which essentially indicates that the market's short-term bullish expectations are now very pessimistic. Conversely, there's still a 32% chance it stays around 95,000, and only a 24% chance it falls below 80,000, suggesting that most people still believe Bitcoin won't crash and are mainly in consolidation.

This situation is crucial for adjusting follow-trade strategies. If you're following aggressive traders, now is the time to pay attention to their stop-loss settings—an 11% probability means anything can happen. Once a key level is broken, quick stop-losses are more valuable than hoping for a turnaround. Conversely, for those heavily betting on the 80,000 support level, the risk-reward ratio is starting to become more favorable.

Recently, I've been observing how some veterans respond—they generally use layered follow-trading—testing the possibility of new highs with small positions while allocating larger positions near support levels. Although this approach doesn't maximize profits, in such high-uncertainty times, surviving until the next opportunity is the real key. As the year-end approaches, being cautious is never a bad idea.