2026-01-02 09:23:10

Recently, I looked at some forecasts from financial institutions, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timetable has become the market focus. According to analysis, the probability of maintaining interest rates in January is about 85%, but by March, the likelihood of a rate cut significantly increases — this shift is quite noteworthy.

The key is that once economic indicators such as non-farm payrolls and ADP employment figures are released this month, the entire rate cut expectation landscape may need to be reshuffled. Good or bad data directly influence the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy stance, thereby affecting overall market sentiment.

Interestingly, every time such macroeconomic data is released, Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to follow suit with fluctuations. Rising expectations of rate cuts usually mean increased liquidity and a pursuit of risk assets, which often benefits the crypto market. Therefore, the upcoming weeks' economic data releases are worth closely monitoring.

BTC3,68%

ETH4,01%

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SatoshiChallenger

· 01-02 22:09

85% probability? Data shows that the accuracy of such predictions over the past ten years is actually just over 60%. Ironically, everyone still goes all in.

Non-farm payroll data, every time they say it will shuffle the deck, but in the end, the market still trades as usual [cold laugh].

It's really funny, still spinning the story of "liquidity increase = coin price rise," forgetting the lesson from 2022?

The data in the past few weeks has definitely been tumultuous, but those betting have lost even faster. Interesting.

It's basically a bet on the Federal Reserve; it's better to just look at history.

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ThatsNotARugPull

· 01-02 09:52

Locking in January, see you in March? I bet the expectation of rate cuts will reverse if the non-farm payroll data doesn't turn out well.

Once the non-farm payroll data is out, the crypto market will start dancing again. I'm tired of this script, haha.

Liquidity loosening leads to risk assets rising—this is exactly us, just wait and see.

These past few weeks have been tense, I've marked all the data dates, none can be missed.

Expectations of rate cuts come and go, more unpredictable than our coin prices.

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GigaBrainAnon

· 01-02 09:52

85% chance of no movement in January? Then just wait for the interest rate cut feast in March, since the non-farm payroll data is the real price driver.

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mev_me_maybe

· 01-02 09:45

85% chance it won't move in January? I feel like the market is already speculating on March's story in advance. Once the non-farm payrolls are out, it will crash.

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FadCatcher

· 01-02 09:33

85% chance it won't move in January, only get active in March? This pace is really a bit tense, just waiting to see how the non-farm payroll data turns out. By then, the crypto market will probably start dancing again.

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