2026-01-02 09:20:53

The Intersection of Rate Cut Expectations and Crypto Narratives

According to the latest forecast from Barclays Bank, the Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts in 2026, scheduled for March and June respectively. The institution also pointed out that the risk of delaying rate cuts is actually more concerning. While this appears to be traditional macroeconomic news, it has profound implications for the pricing logic of crypto assets.

Market consensus has largely taken shape. Whether it’s major Wall Street investment banks or the Federal Reserve’s official meeting minutes, industry participants have reached a consensus on the long-term nature of the high-interest-rate environment—postponement of the first rate cut has become a market expectation. What does this mean for risk assets like Bitcoin? The answer is that the market has already priced in this slower, more delayed policy path over the past few months. When official news finally materializes, the impact may be weakened, or even produce a "sell the news" reverse effect as uncertainty dissipates.

From "When to Cut" to "Why to Cut" — the Shift

If rate cuts truly don’t start until 2026, then the economic backdrop triggering them becomes crucial. In a scenario of soft landings or even strong stabilization, preemptive rate cuts are bullish for risk assets. Conversely, if economic deterioration forces emergency rate cuts, markets will face turbulence. High-beta assets like Bitcoin will amplify sentiment reactions to these two macro paths.

In the remaining time of 2025, the driving forces in the crypto market may rely more on industry-specific logic—such as spot ETF fund flows, technological iterations, application breakthroughs, and regulatory developments—rather than macro liquidity. This provides an opportunity for crypto assets to demonstrate independent alpha.

BTC-1,96%

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SmartContractRebel

· 01-05 04:47

Will interest rates be cut only in 2026? We might have already gone to hell and come back haha BTC is now digesting this expectation, and it wouldn't be surprising if it explodes later. The key still depends on when the economy truly can't hold up anymore—that's the real buying point.

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FunGibleTom

· 01-03 17:33

The negative news has been fully digested and the opposite effect has already occurred; the news of rate cuts in 2026 doesn't hold much value anymore. --- Bitcoin doesn't care when the Federal Reserve cuts rates; right now, it's all about ETF approvals and technological breakthroughs. --- Whether the economy experiences a soft landing or a hard landing is the real divergence point. It's not so easy for the crypto world to decouple from macroeconomic trends. --- It sounds good, but in reality, the market has already priced in this expectation. When the news actually comes out, a sell-off is likely. --- Industry logic for 2025? Honestly, it still depends on on-chain activity and new narratives; liquidity is just a smokescreen. --- Why does it feel like everyone is waiting for rate cuts, but when they happen, no one is actually trading? --- Preemptive rate cuts vs. emergency rate cuts—crypto prices react in completely opposite ways. That's the real battleground.

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SandwichTrader

· 01-02 09:50

Uh, I want to say, interest rate cuts in 2026? So what are we trading now? If we've already priced everything in, how do we play? The industry's own logic is the real key; I'm tired of the macro stuff. The signs of interest rate cuts have been obvious for a while; the key is whether BTC can break through itself. Is a buy signal after all the bad news is out? I'll take a gamble. The flow of spot ETFs is the real indicator of money speaking; don't just focus on the Federal Reserve.

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FreeRider

· 01-02 09:50

Another prediction: interest rates will be cut again in 2026? That's long been priced in. Now it depends on what tricks BTC can pull off.

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BagHolderTillRetire

· 01-02 09:46

Oh my, interest rate cuts won't happen until 2026? I have to wait another two years? Can the coins wait, I can't wait The talk about interest rate cuts has been overhyped for a long time, it's late to say anything now, it was best to buy the dip earlier Instead of waiting for the Federal Reserve, it's better to watch how the cash flows in spot ETFs, that's real gold and silver Now it's all about who can step out of their technical logic and make money Soft landing for the economy? Wake up, the day interest rates are cut will be the day to sell off 2026, huh? I'll go sleep for five years first then.

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SolidityJester

· 01-02 09:35

All cleared out already. So, when the news of interest rate cuts in 2026 comes out, will there be any reaction? LOL --- When will the rate cut happen and how much will it be? Ultimately, it still depends on economic data, BTC is waiting. --- The idea that all the bad news is exhausted has been heard too many times. Anyway, I just DCA, no matter what the macro environment is. --- Industry's own logic? The flow of spot ETFs is the real deal, everything else is虚 (虚 means "虚" or "虚假" which can be translated as "fake" or "illusory"). --- Waiting for 2026 is too long; it's better to see how the Solana ecosystem develops now. --- Preventive rate cuts vs emergency rate cuts, the difference is indeed significant, but how does an ordinary person know which path the Fed will choose? --- Haha, the long-term consensus on high interest rate environment means BTC will have to stay dormant a bit longer. --- Dispersing uncertainty creates a reverse effect? Basically, don’t expect official announcements to surprise you. --- Instead of waiting for rate cuts, it’s better to focus on projects that can thrive in a high-interest environment.

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NFTPessimist

· 01-02 09:21

Another rate cut expectation, so annoying. Anyway, the crypto market has already been speculated on for a long time, and now reading news is useless. --- Only a 26-year delay? Then what are we aiming for now, to jump in or wait? --- Is the market just reacting after all the negativity is exhausted? I've heard this kind of talk for three years, buddy. --- Interesting, now it's time to test Bitcoin's independence. Don't follow the US stock market's dance again. --- Sounds nice, but isn't it just betting on a soft landing of the economy? If we bet wrong, we'll all be buried together. --- Spot ETF is the real driving force; macro stuff is all just虚的 (虚幻,虚假). --- No idea how many projects are still alive after 26 years. Talking about narratives now might be a bit early. --- Preventive rate cuts vs. emergency rate cuts? BTC doesn't care which, it just drops. --- This logic is a bit convoluted. To sum up, buying coins now depends on faith, not the Federal Reserve. --- Independent Alpha? Uh, I only see greater volatility risk.

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