The expectation of RMB appreciation is heating up, with Goldman Sachs predicting that the real-time USD to RMB exchange rate will reach 6.85 by 2026.

Recently, the Chinese Renminbi has shown a clear appreciation trend, driven by a quiet adjustment of national policies. As of November 26, the USD/CNY onshore exchange rate was quoted at 7.0824, and the USD/CNH offshore rate was quoted at 7.0779, both hitting their lowest levels in over a year. More notably, the CFETS Renminbi Exchange Rate Index broke through 98.22 on November 21, reaching its highest level since April of this year.

Looks like appreciation, but essentially strategic positioning

On the surface, this is the result of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut cycle promoting global liquidity easing. However, the deeper logic is far more complex. The daily midpoint setting mechanism of the People’s Bank of China (which allows the exchange rate to fluctuate within 2% around the midpoint) has recently been pushing the Renminbi stronger. Meanwhile, state-owned banks frequently buy US dollars in the foreign exchange market, creating a gentle constraint on the exchange rate and keeping the appreciation process steady and controllable.

This carefully designed set of measures points to a clear goal — to enhance the international credibility of the Renminbi by demonstrating its stability and resilience. Kelvin Lam, senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, compares this to the policy logic during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998: at that time, the Renminbi refused to engage in competitive devaluation, thereby establishing its position as a regional anchor currency. Today, a similar strategy is being replayed.

Changes behind the data

Comparative data better illustrates the issue. During the US trade shocks in 2018, the Renminbi depreciated by about 5%. But from 2025 to date, the Renminbi has appreciated by nearly 3%. This is not just simple market fluctuation but a reflection of policy intent.

Data from the Bank for International Settlements further supports this trend: since the last survey in 2022, the daily trading volume of USD/CNY has increased by nearly 60%, reaching $781 billion, accounting for over 8% of total global daily foreign exchange trading. The surge in trading volume indicates rising international market interest in the Renminbi.

Kiyong Seong, Chief Asia Macro Strategist at Société Générale, pointed out: “In the uncertain global market environment, the relative stability and appreciation of the Renminbi are becoming a strong support for its international status.”

Goldman Sachs’s future forecast

Based on current policy stance and economic fundamentals, Goldman Sachs’s analysis team has made specific predictions. By the end of the year, the real-time USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to reach the 7.00 mark. Furthermore, the forecast for one year later (2026) is an exchange rate of 6.85.

Goldman Sachs believes that this series of appreciation movements is not short-term volatility but the result of the Chinese government explicitly prioritizing the internationalization of the Renminbi. In the coming years, the process of Renminbi internationalization is expected to accelerate significantly, reshaping the subtle balance of the global currency landscape.