#以太坊行情解读 【ETH Pullback Trap? On-Chain Data Reveals the Truth】

Keep an eye on the 1-hour ETH chart; this decline has some nuances. Dropping from 3077 straight down to 2899, it indeed broke the lower Bollinger Band, looking quite dangerous. But this is a key observation point: the 2890-2900 level has held for the past three days, and yesterday there was even a large buy order of 12,000 ETH, indicating that the bottom support is still intact.

What about trading volume? During the sell-off, volume didn't significantly increase, which is quite interesting — it usually suggests that selling pressure may be overextended. Looking at MACD, although the DIF has crossed below DEA, the green bars are shrinking, indicating that the downward momentum is weakening.

On-chain data is even more intriguing: in the last 15 minutes, net outflows of over 8,000 ETH from exchanges, with large holders quietly accumulating. Meanwhile, ETH staking unlocks have dropped sharply by 40% this week, and the proportion of staked addresses' holdings has risen to 72%, indicating a tightening supply. Coupled with the possibility of a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve tonight, these factors together suggest that the short-term emotional impact may be limited.

So the question becomes: is this a genuine dip or a shakeout? From technical and on-chain data, the vicinity of 2900 is definitely worth watching. If one is to build a position, 2870 would be a more aggressive risk point. On the upside, the middle Bollinger Band at 3020 is the first resistance level, and a breakout could bring the previous high at 3080 into view.

The market always offers opportunities, but timing is crucial. Stay patient and let the data speak.