#数字资产市场洞察 The astonishing GDP growth rate has negatively impacted interest rate cut expectations, and this wave of operations has exposed the core contradictions of TradFi.

Once the data was released, the probability of interest rate cuts fell from 31% to 13.3%. The problem arises: when the economy is poor, people hope for the central bank to inject liquidity, but when the economy is good, they fear the central bank will not take action. This "wanting both" logic has tied the entire traditional asset market to the Federal Reserve's policy cradle. Retail investors are always guessing the central bank's mood; if they guess right, they make a profit, but if they guess wrong, they suffer heavy losses — this is the fate of passive investors.

But this matter has a completely different significance in the crypto world. Bitcoin does not look at GDP data, does not care about the federal funds rate, because its value is supported by the absolute scarcity of 21 million coins and the consensus mechanism of the global ledger. Whether macroeconomic expansion or contraction, this logic stands firm. The same goes for Ethereum; ecological activity, L2 scaling, application iteration — these are the real fundamentals of on-chain assets.

In the short term, the shattered dream of interest rate cuts will indeed hit the market for a while, and the sentiment is bearish. However, looking at the longer perspective, this is an excellent window for the crypto market to decouple from TradFi.

Specifically:

First, stop worrying about the monthly CPI data and employment data. That's the stage for the central bank's games, not your battlefield.

Second, shift the research focus to Bitcoin halving cycles, Ethereum's technical upgrade roadmap, and on-chain active addresses, these crypto-native metrics. These data are in your hands, not hijacked by central banks.

Third, when traditional investors are struggling due to repeated policy expectations, you have already made precise layouts using on-chain data and market cycles.

The old world is entangled in the trivial policies of central banks, while the clock of the new world has long been ticking at its own pace.