The world is still under a combination of "high interest rates + low growth", with a general risk appetite for traditional assets being low, and funds are more inclined towards high liquidity, leading assets (BTC/ETH) rather than small market capitalization tokens.

Cryptographic assets are increasingly viewed as "high volatility risk assets" in institutional allocation, with respect to macro liquidity and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.
The market is highly sensitive; once there are expectations of "interest rate cuts" or "easing signals," it often reacts first on BTC before spreading to altcoins.
Market sentiment divergence:
Medium to Long Term: Overall optimistic about the blockchain technology and the supply contraction after Bitcoin halving;
Short-term: Highly sensitive to regulatory developments, ETF application progress, and macro data (employment, inflation), with news-driven market fluctuations intensifying.
On-Chain
(Not targeting a single cryptocurrency, describing the typical characteristics of the "overall cryptocurrency market")
Activity Level:
The on-chain transfer numbers and active addresses of Bitcoin and Ethereum's mainnet are relatively stable, situated in a "not extremely sluggish, but far from enthusiastic" neutral range. The active addresses of new public chains and Layer 2 networks (L2) tend to show periodic bursts—strongly correlated with airdrop expectations, mining incentives, and popular applications, with limited sustainability.
Capital Flow & Position Structure:
The total supply of on-chain stablecoins (such as USDT/USDC) remains high, indicating that there is still "cash waiting for opportunities" in the market, but it is more inclined towards short-term participation. The proportion of long-term holders of BTC/ETH remains relatively high, and the pattern of "old coins remaining stable while new coins are frequently traded" makes short-term prices susceptible to emotional drives.
TVL (Total Value Locked):
The total TVL in DeFi is distributed across multiple public chains, with Ethereum remaining central, but leading L2s and new public chains continuously siphoning off liquidity. The fluctuation of TVL is highly correlated with coin prices: during price increases, nominal TVL rises; when prices correct, TVL shrinks along with prices, and leverage and yield farming funds are withdrawn rapidly.
Technical Structure (Technical) ~ Simplified description from the perspective of the "Cryptocurrency Overall Index" (which can be understood as total market capitalization/mainstream coin basket):
1. Trend Structure:
Weekly level: Overall, it is still in a mid-term upward structure after the previous round of bear market lows, but has already experienced a more obvious "main rise + pullback". Currently, it is more about oscillating to digest the previous gains. Daily level: The price is oscillating back and forth around a medium to long-term moving average band (such as the EMA 50/100 daily band), with bulls and bears repeatedly vying for control over the key moving averages, lacking a one-sided trend.
Key price level area (abstractly expressed as "Total Market Capitalization Index/Mainstream Basket Index"):
Resistance zone above: the previous high range (equivalent to the last local peak), tends to see profit-taking and sentiment retreat each time it approaches.
Support zone below: The area where the previous breakthrough range and important moving averages overlap. Once it breaks down, it is often accompanied by increased volume and fear.
Panic emotions escalate.
2. Indicator Signal:
Daily RSI: Fluctuates mostly between 40–60, indicating that the market is neither extremely overbought nor deeply oversold, leaning towards neutral and oscillating.
MACD: Frequent golden crosses/dead crosses near the zero axis indicate that the current trend strength is not prominent, and it is more of a range trading environment.
Risk Signal (Risk)
Macro Risk:
If in the future there is a "prolonged period of high interest rates" or new systemic risks (such as geopolitical issues or credit events), high volatility assets (including cryptocurrencies) will be prioritized for reduction.
Regulatory Policies:
New regulatory guidelines and enforcement actions against exchanges/projects may trigger a phased "sudden drop in liquidity + sharp deterioration in sentiment" decline.
Market Structure Risk:
Leverage and contract position concentration: When the market trends in one direction, it can easily trigger a "chain liquidation," amplifying short-term volatility. Liquidity is concentrated on a few platforms and a limited number of top cryptocurrencies, and once a major platform/stablecoin experiences turmoil, there will be spillover effects.
Quantitative Modeling (Quant)
The following is an abstract strategy framework applicable to the "Overall Crypto Market Index/Mainstream Basket" (non-single coin signal):
Trend Following Model:
When the price stabilizes above the medium to long-term moving averages (such as the EMA 100 days) and the MACD continues to stay above the zero line, the historical win rate of bulls tends to increase significantly. In backtesting, during the later stages of a bull market, the win rate of this type of model can maintain around 55%–65%, but it is prone to frequent stop losses in a sideways market.
Range Trading Model:
During the sideways phase near the RSI 40–60 and the MACD zero line, the "high sell low buy + small profit taking" strategy performs better than chasing trends.
Typical parameters:
Buy on dips: Price approaches the key daily moving average support and RSI is near 40; Sell on rallies: Price approaches the previous high/upper boundary of the range and RSI is near 60–70.
Position and Risk Control Recommendations (for Overall Crypto Asset Portfolio):
In the core portfolio, a single cryptocurrency should not exceed 20%–25% of the total funds; for non-mainstream/small market capitalization projects, it is recommended that a single project does not exceed 3%–5% of the total funds; when using contract leverage, the total nominal position should be controlled within 150% of net assets to avoid being passively liquidated during extreme volatility.
Technical indicators need to be combined with MACD, RSI (makc)
makc Professional Technical Perspective (Overall Market Dimension):
MACD Dimension:
The current overall market is closer to a "repeated adhesion near the zero axis" oscillation state, indicating that the main trend is not strong, and chasing up.
The marginal returns of a potential price drop are limited.
The appropriate operation is: after the first golden cross above the zero axis, gradually increase the position at the right time; after the first death cross below the zero axis, reduce the position or observe, waiting for new signals.
RSI Dimension:
When the mainstream coins collectively have an RSI > 70, it usually corresponds to a phase of overly heated sentiment, and historical statistics show that the probability of short-term pullbacks significantly increases; when the RSI < 30, it often indicates a phase of extremely pessimistic sentiment, where the cost-effectiveness of gradually building medium to long-term positions on the left side is relatively high.
High, but it is necessary to accept the risk of continuing to dip in the short term.
Comprehensive coordinates:
MACD > 0 and RSI 50–65: bullish but not overheated, can gradually increase holdings in top coins; MACD ≈ 0 and RSI 40–60: oscillating and neutral, focusing on high selling and low buying/grid trading.
Instead of chasing trends; MACD<0 and RSI<40: bearish or correction phase, primarily focusing on reducing positions, defending, or patiently waiting.
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Comprehensive Conclusion (Summary)
The current overall cryptocurrency market is in the "consolidation phase after a medium-term rise":
Medium to long term: Under the logic of technological evolution and supply contraction, mainstream assets still have allocation value;
Short-term: The trend signals are not strong, more suitable for controlling leverage and a defensive range trading approach.
Risk Level: High attention must be paid to macro interest rates and regulatory dynamics, maintaining diversified allocation and strict stop-loss.
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