The price of Bitcoin is influenced by conflicting factors: the fatigue of institutional investors and the confidence of large holders (whales).

Outflows from ETFs – constant withdrawals indicate a decrease in institutional demand.
Changes in regulation – the transfer of oversight from the SEC to the CFTC may enhance legitimacy, but it creates risks of delays in policy.
Accumulation by large holders – record purchases of BTC signal long-term optimism.

Detailed analysis

1. Fatigue of institutional investors from ETFs (negative factor)

Overview: American spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded six consecutive weeks of net outflows, totaling $142 million as of December 24, 2025. Total ETF assets have decreased to $114.99 billion from summer highs, coinciding with a 30% drop in BTC from its peak in 2025. Retail investors are selling, and institutional participants are reducing risks but are not fully exiting the market.
What does this mean: Ongoing outflows reduce liquidity on the buy side, creating downward price pressure. To restore growth, it is important that outflows are replaced by inflows — this may happen with changes in the Fed's policy or the resumption of institutional interest.

2. Regulatory crossroad (mixed effect)

Overview: The bill on the structure of the cryptocurrency market in the USA proposes to transfer oversight of Bitcoin from the SEC to the CFTC, classifying it as a commodity. At the same time, more than 20 states are developing laws that allow holding BTC in state reserves (Bitwise).
What does this mean: Clarity from the CFTC may attract institutional capital, but delays in legislation expected by the end of 2026 maintain uncertainty. State-level adoption may offset federal delays, creating a "push-pull" effect in regulation.

3. Accumulation of large holders and signals from the blockchain (positive factor)

Overview: Wallets with a balance of 1,000 to 10,000 BTC increased their holdings by 269,822 BTC in December 2025 — the largest monthly purchase since 2012 (CryptoQuant). At the same time, reserves on exchanges decreased by 8.77 million BTC as coins were moved to cold storage.
What does this mean: Purchases by large holders absorb selling pressure and reduce the liquid supply. Historically, such accumulations precede price increases. For example, in March 2025, weekly purchases of 45,000 BTC led to a 28% rise.

Withdrawal

The nearest movement of Bitcoin depends on the change in the direction of flows in the ETF and the Consumer Price Index report (CPI) for December 24 — if inflation turns out to be below 2.5%, it may revive interest in risk. In the long term, the accumulation of large holders and positive regulatory changes create potential for growth, but traders should closely monitor the support level at $84.5K — a key reversal zone for 2025. Will the inflation data finally break the three-month consolidation of BTC?