I've been in the crypto world for almost ten years, experiencing both large and small cycles. The current market data does have some shadows of the end of 2018 and 2022—but upon closer inspection, the logic might be different.

Bitcoin has started to lose momentum after reaching a high of 126,000 in October, dropping to just over 85,000, with a cumulative decline of nearly 30%. The market fear index has long entered the deep red zone. But to be honest, this is the time when I feel more excited.

**Why does it have to drop?**

In the past month, there has been a very obvious phenomenon—early players who have held onto their assets for many years are accelerating their sales. They have low costs and are making a huge profit from selling. The problem is that the funds that should have absorbed this selling pressure—such as ETFs and institutional investors—have recently shown a clear lack of capacity. On one side, there is frantic selling, while on the other side, no one is placing orders, and under this supply-demand mismatch, the market naturally cannot hold up.

The policy adjustments in early October directly triggered a storm of leveraged liquidations, with over 19 billion disappearing in a single day, leaving the followers completely stunned. Even now, a bunch of contract players are still licking their wounds.

**But this is really not the end of the world**

My view may be different from many others. This does not seem like the industry is completely over; it feels more like a normal adjustment in a larger cycle.

The reason is simple - look at the on-chain market data. The number of active addresses has not experienced a cliff-like decline, the locked amount in mainstream ecosystems is still steadily increasing, and stablecoins continue to flow in. These indicators suggest that the underlying ecosystem hasn't encountered any major issues; the price decline is more due to being dragged down by the macro environment.

In simple terms, the Federal Reserve's policy is still fluctuating, the international situation is becoming increasingly complex, and liquidity is already tight at the end of the year. These external pressures will indeed lower asset prices in the short term, but they do not change the fundamental logic.