Watching the rebound near 3000 points for ETH today, I can't shake the feeling that something is off.

At the opening this morning, ETH hovered around 2956. The small bullish candlestick that just appeared on the 4-hour chart seems like it's about to take off at first glance, but if you take a closer look at the on-chain data and the funding situation, you'll find quite a few intricacies. A well-known analyst recently made a strong statement in a public forum—"ETH is seriously undervalued, it could reach 15,000 by the end of this year," but then turned around and revised in an internal report to his clients saying, "It might have to return to 1800-2000 in the first half of 2026." This contradictory operation indeed leaves people a bit bewildered.

Looking at the data level again. Large miners have accumulated 3.3% of the total ETH supply, and the circulation on exchanges has also dropped to a multi-year low. Logically, "with less goods, prices should rise," but the story on the spot ETF side is quite interesting—first, there was a net inflow of 53.6 million, followed by a quiet withdrawal of 20 million. This rhythm of buying and selling is generally a way for funds to test market depth.

From a technical perspective on the 4-hour chart, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is still compressing the price, the RSI has just started to tick up but the MACD's red bars are shrinking. This kind of discordant signal combination often indicates that the strength for a rebound may be insufficient. Someone entered a long position at 3020 and is now stuck, which is a typical feeling of being drawn in and then getting shaken out.