$ACHR

In the eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) space, we saw two opposite news flows within the same month. On one side, in the U.S., a tightening of aviation safety focused regulation is being discussed, and this wave is creating pressure on eVTOL stocks. On the other side, Archer is trying to scale an early operations, early testing, fast integration approach with Saudi Arabia’s civil aviation authority GACA under Vision 2030.

The signal on the U.S. side is clear: safety rules may tighten
After the deadly accident in Washington D.C. in January (a Black Hawk helicopter and an American Eagle flight collided over the Potomac and 67 people lost their lives), U.S. senators pushed to add stricter aviation safety provisions into the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).
The critical issue is this: within the NDAA, there are exemptions that allow military helicopters to fly in congested airspace without using ADS-B (the tracking system that broadcasts aircraft location). The approach of National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Chair Jennifer Homendy is quite harsh: she emphasizes that this exemption creates an unacceptable risk to public safety and that for 67 families, it means the investigation of a preventable tragedy is essentially being ignored.

The regulatory change led by Maria Cantwell and Ted Cruz passed the Senate unanimously and has now moved to the House of Representatives. The core of the change is to require all operators to use both forms of ADS-B and to remove the Department of Defense (DoD) exemption. The Pentagon objects to this requirement on the grounds that in some operations, ADS-B would disclose the location of military assets to hostile actors.

There is a subtle but very important distinction here: eVTOLs may already be using ADS-B. But the issue is not only “which device exists today?” The issue is that if the language of the regulation hardens, certification processes may become more complex, more expensive, and slower.

Especially for platforms targeting autonomous operations (such as Joby, Archer, EHang, Vertical Aerospace), the certification path is already difficult. If a safety driven regulatory wave starts in the U.S., it may affect not only military helicopters but the entire airspace order. This can indirectly create new layers on eVTOLs’ concept of operations, airspace integration, and certification requirements.

This is where the market is reacting: not eVTOL technology, but the risk of the roadmap extending and uncertainty increasing.

On the other side, Archer is working with Saudi Arabia’s GACA to accelerate electric air taxis in major cities like Riyadh and Jeddah. This step is aligned with Vision 2030’s scaled transformation goals.

GACA’s approach is like this: by establishing a regulatory framework similar to the U.S. FAA’s eVTOL Implementation Pilot Program (eIPP), it wants to open a path that will enable early tests and early operational flights. In other words, before certification is fully completed, the goal is to build both the ecosystem and public acceptance through proof-of-concept, demonstration flights, and experimental operations.

Archer CEO Adam Goldstein’s message is also clear: by combining FAA aligned certification work with early demonstrations in Saudi Arabia, they want to bring the program to life in a safe and fast way.

The point Archer is trying to turn into an advantage here is being able to build a real world test environment through partnerships. Collaborations like The Helicopter Company and Red Sea Global provide Archer with controlled but real condition test areas that we call a sandbox.

This is critical for eVTOL because eVTOL success is not only that the aircraft flies. It means building a multi-layered system including operations, maintenance, route planning, safety protocols, ground infrastructure, airspace coordination, and public acceptance.

Saudi Arabia’s approach of aggressive investment in future technologies with PIF and state support can create momentum that may open the way for Archer in this process: the eVTOL narrative is looking in the same direction as tourism, foreign investment, and economic diversification goals.

The picture I’m reading is this: eVTOL has moved beyond the technology debate and has come to the question of in which country the certification path is faster and clearer. In other words, the market has evolved from “does it fly?” to “does bureaucracy allow it to fly?” On the U.S. side, a safety focused regulatory wave can create pressure on stocks because it may add uncertainty to certification timelines. On the Saudi Arabia side, Archer is trying to write a scaling story where the regulatory framework is accelerated with pilots and early tests and demonstrations are possible.

Also, let’s not forget dilution; on November 6, 2025, with a $650M registered direct offering, it sold 81.25 million shares at $8.00.

Technical Analysis: