Core Situation Assessment: Is it a "bottom building" or a "downward correction"?

• Short-term support confirmation: ETH rebounded near $2,962, indicating that there is indeed strong buying pressure from long positions and short position liquidations in this range.
• Indicator repair demand: 15 minutes/1 hour KDJ is oversold at a low level. Technically, there needs to be an upward pullback to digest the deviation rate of the sudden drop in the early morning.
• Trend determination: rebound rather than reversal. Overall, the 4-hour and daily levels remain bearish. Therefore, the upcoming strategy is: to re-enter short positions at high levels > to take short-term long positions at support levels.
Shorting again at a high position (main strategy, in line with the medium-term trend)
The ideal next secondary short point will slightly move down:
• First resistance zone: $3,010 - $3,025 (1 hour Bollinger middle band).
• Second resistance zone: $3,040 - $3,055 (near the point where it fell in the early morning).

• If the price retraces to around $3,025 and a upper shadow appears, you can re-enter a short position (the position can be set to 1/2 of the previous one).
• Stop loss: Set at $3,075 (must stop loss before the breakout of the previous high).
• Take profit: Looking back at the $2,950 area which is a dense liquidation zone for long positions.
3. Risk/Opportunity Weight Before Christmas
• 24-hour risk: If it falls below $2,950, it will trigger the $850 million long liquidations we calculated earlier. At that time, the market will drop vertically, directly looking at $2,880.
• Christmas Market: Historically, there is often a behavior of "baiting shorts" followed by a rally on Christmas Eve (23-24).
Core Observation: Looking for the "Golden Pit"
Liquidity Hunting (High Win Rate Pin Bar Long)
• Ultimate entry point: $2,880 - $2,915
• Logic: * Dense liquidation zone: The $2,950 we mentioned earlier is just the first line of defense. The real bulls' last line of defense and the dense liquidation zone is around $2,880 - $2,900.
• Daily level support: Referring to the daily K-line, the lower Bollinger Band is currently extending upwards, forming strong support around $2,880.
• Operating advice: Do not place a limit order directly, but wait for the price to rapidly spike down and break below $2,950, and when it touches around $2,900 with a quick decrease in volume, or even shows a long lower shadow in 15 minutes, enter the market at the market price.
• Stop loss: $2,840 (if it falls below the previous low, the Christmas market will basically be declared over).
• Target level: Looking back at $3,050.
Confirm reversal (right side safe to go long)
• Confirm entry position: $3,035 - $3,045 (after stabilizing)
• Logic: * Breakthrough Resistance: The starting point of this downward movement is at $3,060. If the price can recover to $3,030 and stabilize at the 1-hour level, it indicates that the breakdown is a complete "Bear Trap."
• Christmas market kicks off: Stabilizing at this point usually marks the official start of the Christmas market, targeting $3,300.
• Stop loss: $2,990.
• Target range: $3,200 - $3,350.
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